Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 210819
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
319 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 319 AM CDT SAT APR 21 2018

Water vapor imagery showing well-defined upper low slowly tracking
through the Front Range this morning, with established moist
southerly flow resulting in widespread shwr activity over central
KS. While the radar may look ominous, a fair amount of dry low and
mid-level air remains in place this morning, as evidenced by the
00z TOP RAOB. Considering we still have 25+ degree dewpoint
depressions, along with available forecast soundings suggesting we
still have a long ways to wait before enough saturation occurs to
lead to measurable precip, have elected to trim back on pops this
morning and early afternoon. As it currently stands, our eastern
Kansas counties stand the best chance of seeing rain today, with
chances decreasing pretty rapidly the farther you go east. In
response to this, have also increased high temps a little, with
upper 50s to lower 60s now expected.

Rain chances look to increase overnight as upper low starts to
move into the Southern Plains. As this occurs, lobes of PV will
lift northeast into the Ozarks and lower Missouri Valley, with
enough saturation finally occurring for measurable rain,
especially south of I-70. Further north, enough dry air may remain
in place to keep much of the overnight period dry. Rain showers to
continue into the morning and early afternoon hours on Sunday
before upper low finally gets a nudge to the east as upstream
ridging begins building east into the Central Plains. Not a
washout by any means, but rain will be around for a good portion
of the day south of I-70.

Aforementioned ridging to slide east on Monday which should allow
temps to warm into the upper 60s for daytime highs under mostly
sunny skies. Next weather feature in the form of a cold front is
expected to slide across the region on Tuesday, bringing the next
chance for rain to the area. Available model guidance suggests
very little in the way of instability generation out ahead of the
front, which should ensure little fanfare with its passage. Dry
weather looks to return both Wednesday and Thursday, before
another cold front bring the next chance for rain to the area on
Friday. All-in-all, a pretty quiet weather week is expected.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2018

Ample dry air in the lower to mid-levels should minimize the
amount of precip able to reach the surface beginning Saturday
after sunrise, though a few sprinkles are possible through the
morning hours. Cloud bases will remain relatively high until
Saturday evening, at which point better chances for precip will
arrive through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...Welsh



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