Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 171944

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
244 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Issued at 224 PM CDT SAT MAR 17 2018

Widespread stratus remains in the post frontal regime across the
mid/lower Missouri River Valley. The mid level trough responsible
for the rain on Friday morning and the isolated/scattered
thunderstorms on Friday afternoon is currently pushing off to the
east, with northwest flow and mid level ridging moving into the
area. The combination of the surface ridge and the mid level
ridging aloft will bring dry and calm conditions for the next 24
to 36 hours before the next system moves in. Steady northwest flow
at the surface, along with the aforementioned cloud cover has
mitigated much in the way of diabatic heating, so had to lower
highs this afternoon to better reflect the temperature trends.
Expect areas across far northern Missouri to dwell in the upper
30s, with areas along I-70 to remain in the lower to middle 40s,
and perhaps a smattering of 50s across the far southern tier of
counties, toward the Ozark region.

Upstream of the mid level ridging a fairly deep and well-formed
mid level trough currently sits over the Pacific NW. This trough
will swing through the area on Sunday, bringing a chance for some
rain, mainly through the evening and overnight hours on Sunday.
There is some uncertainty in the exact evolution of this system,
mainly regarding the track with which it ejects into the Plains
region. It will most likely become a matter of the haves and
have-nots with respect to who gets the useful
moisture/precipitation from this Sunday night system. Given the
model trends there will likely be a rather tight gradient on the
northern end of the precipitation. The location and the
"tightness" of this gradient will depend on the track of the
system as it ejects eastward. The NAM and ECMWF solutions track
the system more easterly through the Ozark region, cutting off the
precipitation roughly along the I-70/Missouri River corridor, with
higher amounts south of that corridor, and very little, if any,
rain north of that corridor. The GFS comes in with a very similar
trajectory, but might be a touch further north, which may be more
favorable for the I-70 corridor and areas just north of the
corridor to see some rain. At any rate, the higher amounts with
this Sunday night system will likely reside well south of I-70,
with some areas perhaps seeing an inch or so of rain, with lesser
amounts with northward extent toward I-70. The question then
simply becomes how far north will areas get any appreciable rain.

For the remainder of the week, northwest flow aloft and low level
cold air advection will keep temperatures on the low side through
the work week, with mostly dry conditions. The next appreciable
chance for rain likely come late in the work week as the next
trough approaches from the west.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 146 PM CDT SAT MAR 17 2018

Should see stratus hang in there for another few hours. The ending
time of the break up of the stratus is a bit nebulous, at least per
the forecast soundings, but given the SREF probs drastically
lowering around 00z, opted to keep the 23z line for VFR. Could see
some light fog in the morning as the surface ridge builds in, and
offered an initial bid for some MVFR CIGs, but confidence is low at
this time, given potential cloud cover and winds staying up around 5




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