Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 220505

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1205 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Issued at 253 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2018

Primary forecast focus is on rain chances across northern and
northeastern Missouri Thursday and greater rain and thunder chances
Friday into Saturday.

This afternoon, a narrow band of low clouds continues to persist
from Iowa southward across the Ozarks into northeastern Arkansas.
With this area of clouds finally beginning to clear the KS/MO border,
temperatures have rebounded gradually. Highs in the low to mid 50s
are still expected.

For tomorrow, another cool morning, before winds increase out of the
south and southwest in response to an increasing 500mb ridge
building off the Rockies and over the central Plains. Additionally,
rain chances will exist for portions of north and northeastern
Missouri through the day in response to a weak 850mb baroclinic zone
developing ahead of the 500mb ridge. To the west of precipitation,
southerly flow will assist in a noticeable warming trend, with highs
by the afternoon across western Missouri into eastern Kansas
reaching the mid 60s with gradually clearing skies in the afternoon.

For Friday, with the 500mb ridge shifting eastward, forced by a
developing short wave trough off the Colorado Rockies, Rain chances
will increase through the afternoon into the evening as the
associated surface low lifts into eastern Kansas and western
Missouri overnight into Saturday. Thunderstorm chances exist,
primarily across western and southwestern Missouri. The chance for
any severe storms is low. Stout warm air advection will be delayed
until the late afternoon. This is enough for some minor MLCAPE
development across portions of western into southern Missouri.
However, the chance for severe storms is very low at this time.

Late in the weekend into next week, long range guidance is in decent
agreement with the development of a strong 500mb trough over the
inter-mountain west. This will result in a steady increase in rain
chances through Monday into Tuesday. Light to moderate rainfall is
possible, with the greatest chances On Tuesday.


.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2018

Sct to bkn mid-lvl clouds will be he rule thru most of the TAF pd
before a ovc deck around 5kft moves into the terminals around
00Z. Winds will be out of the SE btn 5-10kts before backing to the
ESE during the evening while remaining btn 5-10kts.




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