Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 150859
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
359 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue today and tomorrow under
  mostly clear skies.

- Cooler temperatures arrive on Sunday and Monday, with a hard
  freeze possible region-wide Sunday night.

- Above normal temperatures should return by Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

The current pattern at the mid to upper levels across the CONUS
is defined by a large closed mid level low centered over
Southern California and associated troughing over much of the
western and northern CONUS, southwesterly mid level flow across
Texas and west southwesterly flow over much of the Southern US
and into the Ohio Valley, and a moderately strong mid level jet
extending from Missouri eastward toward the northeastern US. At
the surface, a long cold front is draped all the way from New
York to the southwest across the Ohio Valley, into the Lower
Mississippi Valley, and eventually Texas. Widespread severe
weather occurred yesterday along and ahead of this cold front,
including a severe storm in our forecast area in Mid-Missouri.
With the front well to our south now, stormy and unsettled
weather has cleared out. Some areas of patchy drizzle and some
stratus clouds remain this early morning, but this should exit
to the south by later this morning, with mostly clear skies and
high temperatures in the lower 60s and a northerly breeze.
Temperatures should warm several degrees tomorrow, with highs
reaching the mid to even upper 60s with mostly sunny skies
persisting.

A trough will descend out of the Upper Midwest on Saturday
afternoon in association with a 996 mb surface low north of Lake
Superior. The tightening pressure gradient should increase WNW
winds across the area on Saturday afternoon with sustained winds
up to 15 to 20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph, especially over
northern and northeastern Missouri. The surface cold front
associated with the trough and surface low should move through
the region from north to south sometime on Saturday evening,
with near freezing temperatures Saturday night into Sunday
morning toward the Iowa border with mid to upper 30s elsewhere.
Much cooler temperatures are expected for Sunday afternoon
behind the cold front with highs forecast to range from the
upper 40s to the mid 50s. Sunday night into Monday morning
is likely to feature a hard freeze across the entire region,
which could pose a threat to sensitive plants and vegetation as
the very warm late winter and early meteorological spring has
yielded early vegetative growth.

Highs on Monday should be even colder than Sunday as the trough
digs deeper into the region, with highs ranging from the lower
40s over NE MO to the mid to upper 40s elsewhere. A
northwesterly breeze around 10 to 15 mph will make it feel
several degrees colder than ambient temperatures. The trough
slides off to the east by Tuesday, with ridging building in over
the western CONUS. Northwesterly flow should be in place over
our region between the trough and ridge, with temperatures
warming into the mid 60s for most locations Tuesday afternoon.
As we head into Wednesday and Thursday, models suggest a trough
may make its way into the Southern Plains, finally returning
winds to southerly, ushering in increased moisture, and
potentially bringing some showers and thunderstorms to the
region Wednesday night into Thursday.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Currently a mix of IFR and MVFR CIGs at the terminals with
occasionally breezy north northeast winds. Patchy drizzle has
also developed across the KC metro. Conditions should improve to
MVFR with drizzle coming to an end within the next couple of
hours, with CIGs finally improving to VFR by around 10z this
morning, and skies mostly clearing by mid morning. Elevated NNE
winds may hang around for another few hours before gusts relax,
with northerly winds around 8 to 10 knots continuing through
most of the remainder of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...BMW


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