136
FXUS63 KEAX 040514
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1214 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms are
  forecasted for overnight into early tomorrow morning. Isolated
  strong storms may be possible.

- There is a potential for strong to severe storms on Monday.
  All hazards are possible.

- Additional rounds of rain may cause river flooding to
  continue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

There is currently a progressive longwave pattern over CONUS with
strong ridging in the east and troughing in the northern Great
Plains region. The upper level jet is rounding the base of the
trough from Nebraska curving into Minnesota. There is currently a
west-southwesterly flow over the region. At the surface, there is
high pressure just to the north of the area resulting in easterly
winds. SPC Mesoscale Analysis shows increased 850MB flow into
southern Nebraska. Added effects of diurnal heating results in wind
gusts as high as 15-20 mph through the afternoon.

Tonight, a smaller, quickly-moving shortwave trough will merge with
the trough to the north of our area. The warm front associated with
the smaller shortwave is expected to impact the area later tonight.
This will result in low temperatures being ~10 degrees warmer than
last night as warm air advects with southerly winds. As the surface
cold front approaches the area, scattered showers and thunderstorms
are possible out ahead and along the frontal boundary. With MUCAPE
values ranging from 1,000-1,500 J/kg and bulk shear around 30-35
knots, there may be a chance for a few strong thunderstorms with
strong winds and hail. At this time, the main threat is expected to
be further west. However, with the consistent rainfall we have been
having, pooling and ponding along roadways may be possible. SPC has
recognized this by putting our area in a marginal chance for severe
weather for this time period. Frontal passage is expected tomorrow
afternoon. With cooler, drier air pushing in behind the front,
expect high temperatures to be a little cooler than yesterday with
highs in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Sunday, decent mid level ridging builds in behind the trough
resulting in high pressure at the surface across northern Missouri.
Meanwhile, a surface cyclone tracks across the Ozarks Sunday
resulting in a chance for some showers for areas south of I-70.
High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s to low 70s
while low temperatures are forecasted to stay in the 50s.

On Monday, the mid level ridging shifts slowly to the east as
another trough enters central CONUS and becomes more negatively-
tilted. By late Monday evening, winds will shift to the south as our
region enters the warm sector of the associated surface warm front.
As a result of this, return-flow from the Gulf will help to slowly
destabilize the environment. The surface front is expected to pass
through overnight into Tuesday. With the passage of this front
showers and thunderstorms are expected. CAPE values around this time
range from 2,000 J/kg to 3,000 J/kg which suggest plenty of
instability for convective activity. With bulk shear values
exceeding 40 knots, there will ample shear to aid in storm
organization as well as create a favorable environment for large
hail and damaging winds. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
linger into early Tuesday morning as the system moves east.

Tuesday, the pattern continues its unsettled trend as multiple
shortwaves pass through by the end of the week. The trough continues
its track northerly and then begins to linger in southern Minnesota.
As multiple shortwaves eject from the stagnant trough, chances for
showers remain through next week. By next weekend the trough finally
begins to shift south and becomes positively-tilted as it moves to
the southeast of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Currently VFR with around 10 knot winds out of the southeast at
all terminals. A broken line of showers and thunderstorms will
approach the terminals by around 10 to 11z this morning, with
these exiting by around 14z. A few isolated showers may linger
through late morning. MVFR CIGs arrive with the showers, with
these continuing through around 22z this afternoon, after which
VFR CIGs should return. Winds shift to northwesterly and
eventually northerly behind a cold front this morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...BMW