Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 232323
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
623 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 244 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2018

Primary forecast focus is on heat and daily isolated to scattered
shower and thunder chances daily.

Not to sound like a broken record, but summer like temperatures will
continue, as unseasonably warm and humid conditions persist. Highs
are continually forecast in the mid to upper 80s with dew points in
the 60s each afternoon. The weekend will be the warmest, with highs
both Saturday and Sunday in the lower 90s for most. Don`t let this
early heat catch you off guard if you`re out and about enjoying the
holiday weekend. Be sure to drink plenty of water and take breaks in
the shade if you`re feeling a bit off kilter. The effects of heat
exhaustion can sneak up on you.

As for shower and thunderstorm chances. Today, with a lack of shear
but an abundance of instability, scattered thunderstorms have
continued to develop across portions of southern Missouri and
southeastern Kansas into OK/AR. This activity has been supported by
a narrow ribbon of moisture through the lower levels and some weak
forcing from isentropic ascent around 315 and 320K. Some of this
activity may spread farther north. A few strong storms may produce
some brief down pours and frequent lightning.

For Thursday, similar conditions will develop from today, but with a
bit more focus from a weak short wave crossing NE/KS into the
afternoon, resulting in some modest convergence across the Ozarks.
Again, we`ll have ample instability with day time heating and
moisture, but a lack of shear for better organization.

Friday is a bit more tricky, with most mid-range guidance suggesting
a complex developing over south central Nebraska overnight, moving
east and southeast into northeastern Kansas through the morning.
Current guidance suggests a lack of shear-cold pool balance
developing by the morning, with weak forward prop Corfidi vectors
compared to 0-3km shear and a drop in MLCAPE values. Still expect
shower and thunderstorms to move into northwestern Missouri. Remnant
boundaries from any left over convection in the morning will play a
role in afternoon development. The GFS is bullish in afternoon
SBCAPE development, but even if this is realized, the lack of any
flow or support aloft will make it difficult for organized
convection. Still, cannot rule out a few strong storms, but it`s
going to be highly dependent on mesoscale conditions.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2018

No aviation restrictions expected this TAF pd. Expect diurnal cu
to cont dissipating tonight before redvlpg around 5kft late
tomorrow morning. We will have to watch for a few VCTS tomorrow
afternoon/evening but covg expected to be too isolated for
inclusion in the TAF at this point.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Kurtz
Aviation...73



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