Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 261939
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
239 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 238 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2018

Primary forecast focus is on this afternoon`s thunderstorm chances.

Through 2 PM, decent cumulus development has been persisting for
just over an hour across northeastern Kansas into northwestern
Missouri and a few updrafts have been identified on radar.
Temperatures have soared across northwestern Missouri, hitting 98
degrees at St. Joe, with upper 90s spread all across northeastern
Kansas, southeastern Nebraska and northwestern Missouri. With such
bullish day time heating, combined with 70 degree dew points, surface
based instability is well over 3500 J/Kg. We remain weakly capped
through 2 PM, but likely not for long. The good news is, forcing is
weak, primarily along a diffuse surface trough spread over the area,
and shear profiles are modest, at best. Expect isolated to
convection to develop along the surface trough through the mid to
late afternoon, diminishing through sunset. The greatest impacts
will be from brief heavy rainfall and frequent lightning.
Thunderstorm wind gusts could be hefty as well with one or two
strong storms capable of hail. Overall, just stay aware this
afternoon, especially if you`re out and about trying to enjoy the
holiday weekend.

For the remainder of the weekend into the coming week, it`s going to
remain hot and humid, with our next chance of showers and
thunderstorms arriving midweek, Tuesday through Wednesday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2018

Overall, should be a relatively quiet aviation period, save for a
few hours at each terminal this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms
may develop near or just north of KSTJ around 20 to 21Z, moving
south through the afternoon and evening, toward KMCI/KMKC/KIXD.
Confidence in coverage and timing is still very low, enough to
keep it out of the TAFs. However, a drop to lower VFR ceilings was
made as a first guess at timing and to capture any resultant
strato-cumulus that moves in from nearby storms. The rest of the
period will remain calm, with light south winds and VFR
conditions.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Kurtz
Aviation...Kurtz


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