Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 231707
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1207 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 308 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2018

Main update for today is the addition of some isolated storms this
afternoon, mainly in eastern KS and the western third of MO. Un-
capped instability will develop in an area of enhanced 700 hPa
moisture, similar to the environment across southeast KS/northeast
OK yesterday that spawned isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Storm
coverage will be very limited, and severe weather is not expected.

The rest of the forecast remains similar: unseasonably warm and
primarily dry. Currently, the best chance of precipitation will
arrive Friday or Friday night as a weak cold front pushes through
the region; however with the main upper support well off to the
northeast and little convergence, storm coverage, intensity and
longevity will be limited. In fact, despite the wind shift,
temperatures will actually increase behind the "fropa" for
Saturday and Sunday as the upper ridge surges eastward and flow
quickly returns to the south.

Early next week, the tropical system progged to lift into the
southeast US remains possible, but its impacts and precipitation
appear to remain south of the CWA at least through the forecast
period. Models differ in its eventual track by later next week,
but in the good news department, regardless of the system`s
eventual progression, it does not appear that system will have an
impact on the holiday weekend for our area.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2018

VFR conditions are expected to preavil through the first half of
the period. Although, some MVFR stratus has tried to develop
farther to the south, so some ceilings may flirt with MVFR through
the afternoon. Tomorrow morning, MVFR stratus is expected to
develop, decreasing in coverage through mid to late morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Kurtz



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