Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 260849
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
349 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 349 AM CDT THU APR 26 2018

Satellite imagery this morning shows us the shortwave trough,
responsible fore Wednesday`s rain, swinging through the Lower
Missouri River Valley as part of a prevailing northwest flow across
the Plains States. A secondary shortwave trough is noted upstream,
across the Dakotas, but that trough will have little effect on the
weather across our region other than to help lift temperatures a
little due to the modest return flow ahead of it. Looking a bit
farther afield, the general ridge to our west, inducing the
northwest flow across the Plains, will have a bit of an opportunity
to shift east through the end of the work week and the weekend,
helping set the stage for our next chance at storms next week.

For Today, there is a bit of fog out there this morning thanks to
the clearing clouds and abundant boundary layer moisture from
Wednesday`s rain. Observations early this morning are that the fog
is rather sallow, so anticipate it burning off quickly around
sunrise. Otherwise, warmer temperatures will return today as the sun
pops out from behind the clouds.

Rest of the work week and through the weekend into early next work
week, temperatures will be on a general warming trend with spring
conditions prevailing as highs range through the 60s and 70s.
However, by early next work week a southwest flow will start to
prevail across the Plains as the upper level ridge shifts east. This
will allow for some decent warm air and moisture advection at the
beginning of next work week, which may lead to our next best chance
for widespread storms by Tuesday or Wednesday. Ether way, expect
temperatures to be rather warm, with highs in the 80s possible both
Monday and Tuesday.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1117 PM CDT WED APR 25 2018

The IFR and MVFR ceilings have moved south of the area leaving
only potential fog this morning as the main hazard. Currently the
skies are clearing out and winds are light, but drier air is
pushing into the region from the northwest. This push of drier air
should limit any fog formation north of Kansas City, but to the
south where the dew points will remain higher fog is a concern.
Currently IXD is going into IFR visibility conditions and may
even drop to LIFR in the next couple hours. This dry air will
eventually make its way to the south and start to clear out the
fog just before sunrise so this trend is in the IXD TAF. This fog
will be shallow and should burn off quickly at sunrise leaving VFR
conditions throughout the rest of the period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Barham



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