Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 181723
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1223 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 436 AM CDT FRI MAY 18 2018

Early morning satellite and H5 analysis show elongated upper low
center still generally positioned across southeast Missouri.
Scattered showers and storms developed around 07Z along a weak
instability axis, moving to slowly to the northwest. These storms
are expected to weaken and dissipate before getting too far north
where instability drops off. A bit of light fog has developed across
portions of central Missouri but is expected to remain rather patchy
in nature, and is not expected to cause any issues for the morning
rush hour.

The upper low will continue to move slowly northeastward today and
we could see a few scattered storms work their way into the forecast
area from the east. Hi-res models also hinting at some scattered
storms developing across eastern Kansas along the instability
gradient and working into far western Missouri this afternoon before
dissipating. Otherwise, today looks like a warm and relatively humid
day.

The focus over the next 36 hrs will be the potential for severe
storms across northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri Saturday
afternoon and evening. A shortwave trough will eject out onto the
Plains Saturday with mid-level southwesterly flow increasing across
Kansas and southeast Nebraska through the afternoon. Deepening
surface low will increase low-level jet across western Kansas with
attendant cold front extending southwestward into western Oklahoma.
The warm front will surge northward towards the MO/IA border with
surface low over northeast Kansas by 00Z Sunday. Forecast soundings
show decent low-level veering shear profile resulting in a nicely
curved hodograph. Expect to see supercells develop by late afternoon
across northeast Kansas, southeast Nebraska, and northwest Missouri
as cap erodes. The primary threat will be large hail and damaging
winds, but given the shear profile...a few tornadoes will also be
possible. Storms are expected to merge with time and the resulting
MCS is progged to move east along, or near, the MO/IA border
overnight.

Showers and thunderstorms may linger into Sunday morning across
portions of Missouri as the cold front pushes through with maybe a
bit of reinvigoration along the front Sunday afternoon. The bulk of
any of this activity should be mostly if not completely east of the
forecast area. High pressure will settle in behind the front, making
for a pleasant and dry Monday. Rain chances return Tuesday with
periodic chances continuing through the remainder of the work week
as convection to the west rides up and over the low amplitude ridge.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2018

VFR conditions are expected this afternoon through overnight. A
few diurnal cumulus have developed and should continue through
this evening before dissipating. Also, higher level clouds should
move into the area from decaying cluster of storms in eastern KS
and NE. Tonight, another cluster of thunderstorms is expected to
develop in KS and track east into eastern KS and western MO around
sunrise. Have added some mention of this in the forecast. If these
storms pan out, there may be brief periods of MVFR ceilings and
IFR visibility, depending on how strong the cluster is. Winds
will generally be light from the southeast through the forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Pietrycha
Aviation...CDB



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