Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 220757
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
257 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 257 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2018

Center of large-scale upper low pretty much hugging the eastern
Kansas/Oklahoma border this morning with regional radars showing
widespread rains lifting north from southern Missouri. As was the
case yesterday, rain showers continue to dissipate with further
northward progress due to well-entrenched dry across central and
northern Missouri. In fact, you can actually watch the shwrs
dissipate on radar as they encounter drier air just north of the
CWA boundary. So this trend may actually be how things play out
for much of the day today, with rain struggling to lift north of
the Route 50 corridor. Regardless for those areas that do see
rain, activity will probably be hit-and-miss through the afternoon
before bulk of activity slides off to the east late this
afternoon and into this evening. Have warmed temps up again this
morning, with low to mid 60s expected across much of the region,
with the coolest temps anticipated across the southern zones.

Continued seasonal conditions expected on Monday as weak upper
ridging builds in aloft. Upper 60s look to be a pretty fair bet
under mostly sunny skies. Tuesday may even be a degree or two
warmer before clouds increase and spotty shwrs develop over the
region by mid/late afternoon out ahead of the next cold front.
Instability generation ahead of the feature will be non-existent
so only expect isolated to scattered shwr activity Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Dry wx to then return both Wednesday and
Thursday before additional rain chances arrive Thursday night when
the next front moves through the area. Again, instability will be
lacking so only isolated/scattered shwr activity is expected.
Warming trend to get underway for the start of next weekend as
ridging approaches from the west. This should ensure dry
conditions with temps rebounding into the upper 60s to lower 70s
for both Saturday and Sunday. Overall, a pretty quiet week of
weather is expected.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2018

Latest trends suggest mostly dry conditions will continue through
the overnight hours, with the majority of light precip remaining
just south of the terminal sites. A brief sprinkle or two is
possible during the early morning Sunday, though currently not
anticipating much precip at the surface. There is a slight
potential for brief MVFR ceilings early Sunday, though dry air in
the lower levels has been slow to erode. Cloud bases will lower
with time, though overall expecting ceiling heights to remain VFR.
Northeasterly surface winds will continue through the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...Welsh


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