437
FXUS63 KEAX 071133
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
633 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds could gust to near 30 mph late this afternoon.

- Conditional storm/ severe weather threat Wednesday.  If storms can
develop, large hail and gusty winds will be the main threats.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Upper low over western South Dakota is expected to remain stationary
for the next 24 hours. Counter-clockwise flow around the low support
unidirectional flow from the southwest across the region.  Mixing
should lead to the development of gusty winds this afternoon, which
may approach 30 mph after 19Z as stronger winds aloft mix towards
the surface.  The gusts should rapidly subside with sunset.  With
mostly clear skies and southwest flow, have sided with forecast
highs near 75 percentile of model guidance.

Convection chances on Wednesday are conditional on moisture return
near 700 mb.  Steep lapse rates from 700-500 mb in excess of 8 C/km
in combination with speed and directional shear will be able to
support the potential for large hail.  NAM and GFS are widely
different for Wednesday, with the NAM suggesting significant
moisture return while the GFS keeps convection chances to the
southeast.  HRRR shows the potential for elevated convection
Wednesday morning east of I-35, and the potential for a more surface
based storm in the late afternoon hours developing immediately ahead
of cold front moving across Iowa Wednesday afternoon.

As the upper low breaks down Wednesday night into Thursday and
shifts east drier northerly flow develops keeping high temperatures
at or below normal through Saturday. Warmer conditions develop
Sunday into Monday as low level flow turns more west-southwest.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Currently LIFR conditions due to fog at MCI, with MVFR CIGs at
MKC/IXD/STJ. Fog should mix out and ceilings should improve to
VFR between by 14z this morning. After this, VFR conditions
should prevail through the period. Southwesterly winds will
likely increase a bit with gusts up to 20 knots this afternoon,
relaxing by this evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...BMW