757
FXUS63 KEAX 290455
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1155 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms possible this afternoon with the
  chance for some to be strong to severe.

- Quiet weather expected Monday with severe chances returning on
  Tuesday.

- Additional rounds of thunderstorms expected through next week
  as pattern becomes more unsettled.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Current water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over South
Dakota/Nebraska border. There is a finger of the jet on the east
side of the trough axis. This trough is expected to continue to
slowly track northeast while becoming more negatively tilted. At the
lower levels, there is a surface cold front to the west, we will
continue to see consistent moisture transport from the Gulf. This
steady flow of moisture in combination with the lift supplied by the
cold front is the reason for scattered showers to the west. We
expect these showers to linger for most of the afternoon. If showers
dissipate, there will still be ample moisture for significant cloud
cover. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
into the evening with ample instability and shear out ahead of this
system. Decent shear is still present with 40-50 knots of bulk shear
which will help with storm organization. One of the main determining
factors of convective development this afternoon will be the amount
of instability present. CAPE values are roughly around 800-1200 J/kg
which is still enough for convective development. However, these
values are significantly less than yesterday`s which suggest the
atmosphere`s inability to recover from recent storms. In addition,
the increased cloud coverage will limit the environment`s ability to
destabilize. Strong to severe storms this afternoon are expected to
be scattered.

For the start of the work week, cooler, drier air is expected to
push through with the passage of the surface cold front. This will
give is a short break from dealing with severe weather. Highs are
expected to reach the low 70s with low temperatures in the 50s. A
surface ridge will pass through the area on the back side of the
cold front and will move to the southeast by late Monday night.

Tuesday, another trough will move through the area to the northwest
of the area over the Northern Plains. With the high to the
southeast, the pressure gradient is expected to strengthen allowing
for moisture transport from the Gulf to set up with southerly winds.
As a result, high temperatures are expected to reach the low 80s
with dew point temperatures reaching the low 60s. CAPE values of
2,000-2,500 J/kg suggests instability will have a chance to build
through the day. Shear will be present with 40-45 knots of bulk
shear which will help with storm organization. We will continue to
monitor this system as it continues to advance.

An unsettled weather pattern will persist through the work week as
troughing deepens over the western CONUS and slowly moves eastward.
Steady southerly winds will push tons of warm, moist air into the
area keeping the lower level thermodynamic profiles favorable for
showers and thunderstorms through the week. It`s not until the
weekend when precipitation chances diminish as a cooler, drier air
mass moves in for the start of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A cold front moved through the terminals in the last 1-2 hours.
This will lead to light westerly winds and drier air moving into
eastern KS and western MO, which will result in VFR conditions
through the forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...CDB