000
FXUS63 KEAX 180419
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1119 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected overnight.
  Strong to severe storms are possible which could produce
  large hail and damaging winds.

- Scattered to more widespread showers and thunderstorms are
  anticipated after sunrise Thursday lasting through the early
  afternoon. Most of these storms remain sub sever; however,
  some small hail and damaging winds are possible.

- Cooler temperatures move in for the weekend.

&&

.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Discrete storms across east central Kansas are showing signs of
supercellular characteristics. Isolated severe storms are possible
with the potential for large hail and damaging winds. Bulk shear and
helicity show a favorable rotational environment which could develop
hail greater than 2". The elevated nature of these storms makes the
tornado threat minimal. These storms are expected to make their way
into the region after midnight where the ambient environment remains
favorable allowing storms to persist into western MO. Storms
continue through sunrise when a larger cold front overtakes them
from the northwest. Scattered to widespread rainfall behind the
front keeps shower and thunderstorm chances around the region
through early afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

An early publication of the discussion as an active night is
anticipated across the region as a leeward system is moving across
western KS. A warm front draped along the I-70 corridor combined
with an intensifying low level jet sets the foundation for storms
chances throughout the night. Broad scale isentropic ascent across
the warm sector is showing signs of initiating storms across east
central KS which are expected to make their way eastward through the
night. Fortunately, clear skies have enabled decent radiational
cooling across the surface forming a low level inversion which looks
to keep these storms from becoming surface based. While these storms
are expected to be elevated, this does not completely nullify severe
weather potential. Mid level lapse rates and MUCAPE above the
inversion show plenty of available energy to initiate updrafts, and
shear values are more than ample to maintain updrafts if they form.
Large hail and  winds remain the primary threat with the potential
to see hailstones around 1.75"-2". Of course, this general broad
scale isentropic ascent also adds uncertainty as there is not a more
discrete boundary which will initiate storms. This also adds
uncertainty in how strong these storms could get. We will have to
rely on the individual updaraft`s ability to tap into the elevated
environment in order to see the full range of plausible hazards.

These storms are expected to move through the area between 10PM and
4AM. Simultaneously a cold front sags southeastward from NE bringing
its own area of convection. This front is expected to overtake the
overnight storms before sunrise as it proceeds SE across the area.
This front then slowly moves through the region expecting to exit
around midday. Post frontal precipitation keeps showers and
thunderstorms chances around throughout much of Thursday. There is
still some uncertainty when it comes to precipitation coverage. At
the least scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated with
the hope for more widespread rainfall across the region to help
catch up on our precipitation deficit. These post cold frontal
storms are not expected to be severe; however, it is possible that a
strong storm or two could have small hail and damaging winds. The
environment south of US-50 does look like it will be given the
opportunity to recharge which could bring a slightly higher chance
for a strong to severe storm as the front exits early in the
afternoon. Unfortunately, the QPF outlook looks rather bleak for the
MO/KS stateline with 0.25" to 0.5" expected. Areas out east look a
little more optimistic with the potential for up to 1" of rainfall.

Once we get beyond this wave of storms, relatively cooler air works
its way in for the weekend. Temperatures trend back towards to just
below normal with highs settling into the 50s and 60s. High pressure
dominates overhead keeping skies clear. This high slide eastward
Monday opening up southerly flow back into the region warming
temperatures back towards the 70s early week and 80s midweek. The
typical springtime pattern of oscillating temperatures and periods of
showers and thunderstorms is in full swing with several potential
opportunities for rain in the long term forecast. With the Kansas
City ASOS being over 2" down on normal precip and the Sedalia ASOS
with a near 3" deficit, we will take all of the opportunities we can
get.

&&


.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Currently VFR conditions at all terminals with light and
variable winds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may impact
the terminals in the 5z to 9z window this evening/early
overnight. These storms could pose a hail threat. Another
round of storms is likely in the 10z to 14z time frame, with
showers lingering behind the storms for a few hours before
precipitation finally clears east of the terminals by early
afternoon. IFR/MVFR CIGs are likely for much of tomorrow morning
and afternoon. Northerly winds should increase behind the front
tomorrow afternoon with gusts up to 25 knots.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Williams