Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FGUS73 KEAX 020009
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MOC001-003-005-021-033-037-041-047-053-061-075-079-083-087-089-095-
101-115-117-121-147-159-165-171-177-195-197-KSC005-091-103-030000-

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
609 PM CST Thu Mar 01 2018

...2018 Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 2...

This Spring Flood Outlook is for the Kansas City/Pleasant Hill
Hydrologic Service Area (HSA) which includes the Kansas River,
Missouri River, and their tributaries, in northeast Kansas and
northern Missouri.

...There is a normal to below normal probability of flooding along
area streams and rivers this spring...

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  03/03/2018  - 06/01/2018

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Delaware River
Muscotah            27.0   28.0   36.0 :  24   33   20   26   <5   <5
:Stranger Creek
Easton              17.0   18.0   23.0 :  68   81   61   77    6    7
Tonganoxie          23.0   30.0   35.0 :  34   47   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Kansas River
De Soto             26.0   33.0   36.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Tarkio River
Fairfax             17.0   18.0   25.0 :  57   65   52   64   35   48
:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti   23.0   28.0   35.0 :  11   18   <5   <5   <5   <5
:102 River
Maryville           18.0   23.0   28.0 :  20   48    5    7   <5   <5
Rosendale           18.0   18.1   23.0 :  21   49   19   49   <5   <5
:Platte River
Agency              20.0   25.0   30.0 :  66   79   42   63   <5    8
:Little Platte River
Smithville          27.0   30.5   35.0 :  <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Platte River
Sharps Station      26.0   29.0   33.0 :  56   81   26   57   <5    5
Platte City         20.0   25.0   29.0 :  56   81   10   25   <5   <5
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev   35.0   39.0   48.0 :   8   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
Bannister Road      34.0   40.0   42.0 :   5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
71 Highway          61.0   66.0   68.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
63rd Street         48.0   53.0   55.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Colorado Avenue     56.0   61.0   67.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Stadium Drive       33.0   39.0   43.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
40 Highway          30.0   35.0   40.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
17th Street         24.0   25.0   27.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
12th Street         30.0   35.0   40.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Little Blue River
Lake City           18.0   25.0   27.0 :  25   22   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Crooked River
Richmond            20.0   21.0   29.0 :  48   58   45   57   <5   <5
:Wakenda Creek
Carrollton          16.0   19.0   21.0 :  63   67   52   55   20   19
:Blackwater River
Valley City         22.0   25.0   31.0 :  76   78   60   60   21   22
Blue Lick           24.0   29.0   37.0 :  88   93   46   59   <5   <5
:Lamine River
Otterville          15.0   18.0   26.0 :  64   65   58   51    6    5
:Moniteau Creek
Fayette             16.0   21.0   25.0 :  56   56   20   22   <5   <5
:Petite Saline Creek
Boonville           16.0   19.5   26.0 :  67   68   51   41   <5   <5
:Thompson River
Trenton             27.0   31.0   34.0 :  21   26   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Grand River
Pattonsburg         25.0   30.0   32.0 :  31   46   16   32    8   23
Gallatin            26.0   33.0   39.0 :  24   40   <5   <5   <5   <5
Chillicothe         24.0   28.0   35.0 :  60   71   41   59   <5    6
Sumner              26.0   28.0   40.0 :  74   81   70   79   <5   <5
:Chariton River
Novinger            20.0   23.0   26.0 :  14   24    9   14   <5    6
Prairie Hill        15.0   19.0   21.0 :  60   65   21   28    8   12
:South Grand River
Urich               24.0   26.0   33.0 :  76   85   56   72   <5   <5
:Big Creek
Blairstown          20.0   23.0   36.0 :  88   89   70   74   <5   <5
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Osawatomie          28.0   45.0   48.0 :  36   55   <5   <5   <5   <5
La Cygne            25.0   30.0   36.0 :  52   75   19   26   <5   <5
Trading Post        27.0   29.0   40.0 :  30   51   26   43   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/03/2018  - 06/01/2018
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Delaware River
Muscotah              5.2    6.5   10.3   17.7   26.8   29.2   30.1
:Stranger Creek
Easton                9.2   10.6   15.5   18.7   20.7   22.1   23.1
Tonganoxie            8.1   11.7   15.6   21.3   24.4   25.4   25.9
:Kansas River
De Soto              10.3   10.9   12.2   14.3   17.8   19.8   23.2
:Tarkio River
Fairfax               6.4    7.6   11.8   18.6   27.1   28.1   30.2
:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti     6.3    6.5   11.1   15.5   19.8   23.5   25.4
:102 River
Maryville             7.1    9.5   13.3   15.6   17.2   20.1   22.4
Rosendale             3.0    4.7   10.7   15.6   17.6   19.6   21.7
:Platte River
Agency               10.0   12.1   18.6   23.5   26.0   28.1   29.1
:Little Platte River
Smithville           15.4   15.6   16.2   17.4   19.5   24.0   25.9
:Platte River
Sharps Station       12.1   14.9   21.0   26.6   29.2   30.7   31.7
Platte City           8.1   10.5   16.0   20.4   22.7   25.0   26.6
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev    26.2   26.4   26.6   27.6   30.9   34.2   36.3
Bannister Road        7.0    7.6    9.3   15.4   22.0   27.5   34.2
71 Highway           35.1   35.7   37.9   43.8   50.6   55.1   59.8
63rd Street          25.3   25.5   26.3   29.4   34.8   39.1   44.3
Colorado Avenue      33.8   34.3   35.8   39.4   43.7   46.1   52.0
Stadium Drive         8.1    8.4   10.2   16.5   22.5   24.5   29.7
40 Highway            1.7    2.3    5.7   10.4   16.7   18.5   24.3
17th Street           1.7    2.0    3.0    6.4   12.0   13.7   19.0
12th Street           6.3    6.8    9.9   14.9   19.5   21.2   26.4
:Little Blue River
Lake City             5.8    6.4    7.3   12.8   18.0   20.9   23.4
:Crooked River
Richmond              7.1    8.8   15.6   19.3   23.3   25.7   26.5
:Thompson River
Trenton              12.1   13.1   18.2   22.5   26.0   29.1   29.7
:Grand River
Pattonsburg           3.2    3.4   10.2   19.0   27.6   31.3   32.8
Gallatin              4.9    4.9   11.3   17.9   25.4   28.5   30.0
Chillicothe           6.9   11.2   19.2   26.1   30.1   32.8   34.1
Sumner               11.4   15.4   24.0   32.1   33.9   35.3   37.2
:Chariton River
Novinger              1.6    2.1    8.1   13.3   15.2   22.7   25.3
Prairie Hill          5.3    6.6   13.1   15.9   18.3   20.7   21.4
:South Grand River
Urich                15.6   19.1   24.4   26.8   27.9   29.1   29.6
:Big Creek
Blairstown           17.0   19.0   22.7   24.3   26.8   28.9   32.2
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Osawatomie           15.6   16.7   22.3   25.8   29.4   33.3   34.7
La Cygne              9.2   11.5   15.3   26.5   29.6   31.0   31.1
Trading Post         10.5   13.0   17.4   24.8   29.7   36.1   36.8

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/03/2018  - 06/01/2018
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Delaware River
Muscotah              2.4    2.4    2.3    2.2    2.2    1.8    1.7
:Stranger Creek
Easton                2.1    2.1    2.1    2.1    2.1    1.7    1.7
Tonganoxie            2.1    2.1    2.1    2.1    2.0    1.5    1.5
:Kansas River
De Soto               4.2    4.1    4.1    4.1    4.1    4.1    4.1
:Tarkio River
Fairfax               6.0    5.9    5.9    5.8    5.7    5.6    5.6
:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti     5.4    5.4    5.2    5.1    5.1    5.0    4.9
:102 River
Maryville             5.5    5.5    5.4    5.4    5.3    5.2    5.2
Rosendale             3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0
:Platte River
Agency                5.8    5.7    5.7    5.6    5.5    5.4    5.3
:Little Platte River
Smithville           12.5   12.5   12.5   12.4   12.4   12.4   12.4
:Platte River
Sharps Station        4.3    4.2    4.0    3.9    3.8    3.6    3.5
Platte City          -1.8   -1.9   -2.2   -2.3   -2.5   -2.7   -2.7
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev    25.3   25.2   25.2   25.2   25.2   25.2   25.2
Bannister Road        3.9    3.9    3.9    3.9    3.8    3.8    3.8
71 Highway           32.0   32.0   32.0   32.0   32.0   31.9   31.9
63rd Street          22.5   22.4   22.2   22.1   22.0   22.0   21.9
Colorado Avenue      25.0   25.0   25.0   25.0   25.0   25.0   25.0
Stadium Drive         5.3    5.3    5.2    5.2    5.2    5.2    5.2
40 Highway           -2.0   -2.0   -2.0   -2.0   -2.0   -2.0   -2.0
17th Street          -1.0   -1.1   -1.2   -1.3   -1.3   -1.4   -1.4
12th Street           2.1    2.1    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    1.9
:Little Blue River
Lake City             4.8    4.8    4.6    4.3    4.3    4.2    4.1
:Crooked River
Richmond              5.7    5.6    5.6    5.5    5.4    5.3    5.3
:Thompson River
Trenton              11.4   11.3   11.1   10.8   10.7   10.6   10.5
:Grand River
Pattonsburg           2.5    2.5    2.3    2.1    1.9    1.8    1.7
Gallatin              4.0    3.9    3.8    3.6    3.4    3.3    3.3
Chillicothe           5.1    4.9    4.6    4.0    3.8    3.6    3.6
Sumner                8.8    8.3    8.0    7.3    6.9    6.5    6.4
:Chariton River
Novinger              0.1   -0.2   -0.6   -0.7   -0.8   -0.8   -0.8
Prairie Hill          2.7    2.1    1.6    1.4    1.2    1.1    1.1
:South Grand River
Urich                 7.0    6.5    6.0    5.6    5.1    4.7    4.2
:Big Creek
Blairstown           12.4   11.6   11.3   10.8   10.4   10.0    9.5
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Osawatomie           13.6   13.5   13.4   13.3   13.3   13.3   13.3
La Cygne              4.9    4.7    4.5    4.3    4.3    4.2    4.2
Trading Post          5.2    4.9    4.6    4.4    4.2    4.2    4.1

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.

Outlook:

For the period March through May, the probability of flooding is
normal to below normal along area streams and rivers. However,
locations which commonly experience spring flooding will still
likely experience similar conditions during the next three months.
This includes the typical locations along the Missouri River.

Recent Conditions:

Mean temperatures since January 30th ranged from the middle 20s
along the Iowa border to the middle 30s across central Missouri.
These values were 1 to 3 degrees below normal across northern
Missouri. Elsewhere, readings were near normal.

Since January 30th, 2 to 3 inches of precipitation had fallen
generally along and southeast of a line stretching from Paola,
Kansas to Chillicothe to Kirksville, Missouri. These values were 125
to 150 percent of normal. The remainder of the Pleasant Hill HSA
ranged from 1 to 2 inches. This precipitation was 70 to 100 percent
of normal.

Present Conditions:

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor indicates moderate drought
conditions generally along and east of Highway 65 in central and
northern Missouri. Elsewhere, the majority of the Pleasant Hill
Hydrologic Service Area is experiencing abnormally dry conditions.

The latest daily streamflow data from the USGS reports near normal
conditions for much northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri. A few
below normal streamflow locations were found across parts of central
and northern Missouri.

There is no snowpack across Kansas and Missouri. Looking north, some
thin snow cover exists across far northern Nebraska and Iowa, and
the Dakotas. However, snow water equivalent values are generally a
trace to one inch. Across the Upper Missouri Basin, mountain
snowpack is currently running above normal. Reservoirs within the
Missouri Basin currently have 100 percent of their flood-control
storage available for use.

Future Conditions:

Across the majority of the Lower Missouri Basin, the 8 to 14 day
outlook indicates a weather pattern favoring above normal
temperatures with a slightly increased probability of above normal
precipitation.

For the March period, the one month outlook shows an increased
probability of above normal temperatures across the Lower Missouri
Basin. There us a slightly increased chance of above normal
precipitation across the all but far western Missouri. Equal chances
of above, below, or normal precipitation is found across eastern
Kansas and far western Missouri.

The outlook for the period March through May indicates an increased
chance of below normal temperatures across the Upper Missouri Basin.
For the Lower Missouri Basin, the outlook shows a slightly increased
probability of above normal temperatures. As for the precipitation
outlook, there is an equal chance of above, below, or normal
conditions across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. There is a
slightly increased chance of above normal precipitation across
central and eastern Missouri. Across the upper portion of the
Missouri Basin, an increased probability of above normal
precipitation exists across the northern Rockies and parts of the
Dakotas.

This is the final Spring Flood Outlook for 2018.

Visit our web site weather.gov/kc for more weather and water
information.

$$

SAW



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