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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120348
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Apr 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong late season gap wind
event is producing N to NE gale-force winds over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Peak winds may reach strong gale overnight. Peak seas
are likely near 13 ft, but will probably build to as high as 17
ft early Fri morning. On going high pressure north of the area
will continue to funnel these gales through Sat morning, dropping
to near gale or strong breeze Sat night into Sun afternoon, and
finally dissipating on Sun night. Peak seas should drop below 12
ft Sat afternoon and below 8 ft Sun afternoon. Marine interests
transiting across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the weekend
should be aware of this upcoming gap wind event and take the
necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions over the
affected waters.

Please read the latest Offshore Zone Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFPZ7.shtml and the High Seas
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for
more information on this event.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from Panama near 08N82W to 04N100W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N100W to 06N115W to 03N130W to beyond 04N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is evident from 05N to 09N between
91W and 96W, and from 05N to 07N between 113W and 118W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gulf of
Tehuantepec gale warning.

Outside of the Tehuantepec area, gentle to moderate winds persist
across the Mexican offshore waters. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft
off Baja California with a component of NW swell, 3 to 5 ft
elsewhere except 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of California. Areas of
smoke from agricultural fires were noted earlier over the
coastal areas off Chiapas and in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, but
this has likely mixed out with the gale force winds.

For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, winds are
moderate or weaker through tomorrow morning. From tomorrow
afternoon into Sat night, developing low pressure over the lower
Colorado River valley will force fresh to strong S winds over the
N Gulf of California. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will be
moving across the waters west of Baja California Norte on Sat and
Sun. In the wake of the cold front, building high pressure
should cause fresh to strong NW winds west of the Baja California
peninsula Sun night into Tue.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Building high pressure north of the region is allowing fresh to
strong wind pulses across the Gulf of Papagayo and coast of
Nicaragua downwind to about 90W. Light and variable winds
prevail across the rest of the Central American and Equatorial
Pacific waters. Seas are 4 to 6 ft. Hazy conditions observed
along and just offshore northern Central America are due to
mostly smoke produced by agricultural fires.

For the forecast, the large N-S pressure gradient setting up
over Central America will support NE to E winds up to strong
tonight into Fri, and near gale tomorrow night and Sat night
over the Gulf of Papagayo region. The forcing will diminish some
on Sun into Tue, but fresh to strong winds are expected to
continue through early next week. The same pressure gradient will
cause fresh to strong N to NE winds over the Gulf of Panama
tomorrow night into Sun. Elsewhere, winds should remain moderate
or weaker for the next several days. Meanwhile, large seas
generated in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will propagate across the
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador tomorrow through Sat
night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging dominates the waters north of 15N and west of
120W. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds
mainly north of 10N and west of 125W. Combined seas are 6 to 9 ft
in this region, with a component of NW swell. Gentle to moderate
winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will weaken over the next
couple of days allowing the trades to diminish even further on
Fri and Sat. A cold front will move eastward across the waters
north of 25N into Baja California through Sun, before dissipating.
Seas should reach to 12 ft near the northern border of the
discussion area at 30N Sat, before slowly diminishing on Sun. A
large NW to N swell will then propagate equatorward on Sun and
Mon reaching as far south of 10N. Also on Sun and Mon, a large S
to SW swell will cross the equator heading northward. These
interacting swell will cause combined seas of up to 10 ft between
08N-22N west of 115W. Finally on tomorrow and Sat, a long tail
of fresh to strong NE to E winds from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and
the Gulf of Papagayo region will reach as far west as 102W and
as far south as 08N. Seas will reach up to 10 ft.

$$
Christensen