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000
FXUS63 KFGF 101828
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
128 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds are possible Thursday afternoon and evening.
  There is a 40 percent chance for advisory impact wind gusts of
  30 mph or greater.

- Low relative humidity is expected Friday afternoon, with a low
  chance for near critical to critical fire weather concerns.
  Similar conditions are possible Saturday, however, with
  slightly higher relative humidity.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Satellite shows agitation in cumuliform clouds along with
observed lightning in more defined cumulonimbus within central
and northeast North Dakota into southern SK and MB, signaling
the onset of scattered showers and weak thunderstorms today.
These scattered showers and storms will continue to push southeast
deeper into our area this afternoon and evening.

Overall, the forecast continues to remain on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 408 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

A relatively strong shortwave brings rain chances into the area this
afternoon into the evening and overnight period. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible during the evening and overnight period,
with a few storms capable of producing gusty winds and perhaps some
small hail. Impacts are expected to be minimal.

Pressure rises will be somewhat rapid as the trough propagates
southeastward along northwest flow, allowing a chance for gusty
winds through much of Thursday afternoon. Sustained northwest winds
in the range of 20 to 25 mph are possible with gusts ranging from 30
to 35 mph. Much drier air pours into the region thereafter, with dew
points falling into the 20s and low 30s heading into Friday.

Attention then turns to fire weather concerns Friday afternoon as RH
values fall into the low 30 percent range across a good portion of
the area. Lower RH values are possible if we see better mixing,
however, and values in the low to mid 20 percent range are possible.
The main uncertainty will be the winds, which will be strongest in
northwest Minnesota, and generally separated from the lowest RH
values in the Devils Lake area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

VFR conditions are forecast in TAFs through 06Z, however
scattered showers and weak thunderstorms will be present across
the region between 18Z-06Z. Thunderstorms will bring the
potential for lightning and gusty, erratic winds up to 35kt,
although confidence was not high enough to include in TAFs yet
due to uncertainty in a thunderstorm briefly impacting any one
site. Will amend if confidence increases in thunderstorms
impacting a site.

Winds will be out of the west and northwest between 10-15kt,
with gusts up to 20kt outside of thunderstorms. Winds increase
out of the north Thursday afternoon after this set of 18Z TAFs.

After 06Z, lowered CIGs are forecast into the MVFR range for
most sites, lasting into Thursday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 408 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Critical fire weather is possible heading into Friday as low RH
values return to the area. Winds will be the main uncertainty
as the axis of stronger winds will be east of the lowest dew
points. In either case, we are looking at near critical fire
weather with a low chance of critical fire weather. Guidance is
suggesting low 30 percent RH values; however, better mixing will
allow RH values to fall into the lower to middle 20 percent
range.

Dew points moderate slightly on Saturday, with low to middle 30
percent values expected.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...CJ
FIRE WEATHER...Lynch