861
FXUS65 KFGZ 052016
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
116 PM MST Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A strong low pressure system will cross the region
this afternoon and evening bringing strong, gusty winds and
isolated to scattered showers. Any wind or shower threat will
come to an end late tonight. For the coming week, it will remain
breezy and temperatures below seasonal averages as several dry
weather disturbances cross the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A strong low pressure system continued to move
across the western states and Arizona Sunday afternoon. The main
result has been strong southwest winds with numerous gusts
between 50 to 60 mph with the strongest gust so far observed 62
mph at Two Guns along I-40. For the remainder of the afternoon and
into the evening look for these strong winds to continue as the
low slowly heads eastward across the area. In addition, strong
upward motion associated with the low will draw in just enough
moisture for a shower threat. The best chances will be toward the
Utah border with slight chances extending as far south a the
Mogollon Rim. Liquid equivalent precipitation amounts will
generally less than 0.15 inches in locations where precipitation
is observed. It`s not out of the question that the very highest
elevations receive an inch or so of snow accumulation. Any wind
and precipitation threat largely moves east of the state after
midnight. Various high wind/red flag warnings and wind advisories
remain in effect through mid evening.

For Monday and the coming week...Dry and colder air behind the
current system will result in the threat of subfreezing morning
temperatures at elevations roughly above 6500 through Thursday or
TheFriday. So if you have done some early planting or have other
sensitive plants you probably want to offer them some protection.
Also, hoses, probably best if you disconnect those for the next
few days. Surface pressure gradients will weaken with the passing
of the current system. However, a dry and weaker disturbance will
approach and move across Arizona from Monday into Tuesday. The
result will be west winds at 15 to 25 mph gusting to 30 mph on
Monday afternoon increasing to 20 to 30 mph with gusts to around
35 mph on Tuesday, especially from the Mogollon Rim northward.
Starting Wednesday pressure gradients weaken further with more
typical afternoon winds in the 10 to 25 mph range. Mainly dry
disturbances will continue to brush Arizona through the week with
both high and low temperatures remaining below seasonal averages
through much of the period, perhaps warming to near normal by
Friday or Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 05/18Z through Monday 06/18Z...Expect very
strong winds and generally VFR conditions through the TAF period,
with the exception of periods of MVFR ceilings/visibilities
between 21Z-06Z due to -SHRA/SHSN along and north of I-40 as a
cold front moves west to east across the area. Isolated MVFR
conditions from blowing dust near KINW, KSJN, and KRQE will be
possible due to the winds. Look for SW winds 20-35 kts, gusting
40-55 kts. Localized areas may see gusts up to 65 kts. Winds will
decrease west to east after 04Z.

OUTLOOK...Monday 06/18Z through Wednesday 08/18Z...VFR conditions
expected through the outlook period. Look for west winds 15-25
kts, gusting 30-40 kts on both Monday and Tuesday afternoon.
Strongest winds will be along and east of a KGCN-KFLG-KSOW line.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon through Tuesday...Southwest winds
gusting 45-60mph will slowly diminish this evening, with lighter
west winds on Monday and Tuesday gusting 20-35mph. Red Flag
conditions will continue into the early evening for portions of
Apache County.

Wednesday through Friday...Seasonably breezy conditions will
continue through Friday, with dry conditions and temperatures a few
degrees below normal. Min RH will range from 5-15 percent each
day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 9 PM MST /10 PM MDT/ this evening for
AZZ004>007-009>017-039-040.

Wind Advisory until 9 PM MST this evening for AZZ008.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MST this evening for AZZ114.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...BAK
FIRE WEATHER...BAK

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff