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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 120307
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
807 PM MST Thu Apr 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...The weather pattern becomes unsettled beginning on
Friday and will persist through much of next week. Expect periods
of gusty winds and cooler temperatures during this time. A low
pressure system looks to move into the region on Monday bringing
us our next chance for some isolated showers. Otherwise,
anticipate dry conditions for the weekend and much of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...Clear skies and light winds will continue overnight. No
updates to the forecast are needed this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /447 PM MST/...With a high pressure ridge large
and in charge across the Intermountain West, light winds and warm
temperatures are taking place this afternoon. Current temperatures
are 5-10 degrees above average with winds 5-15 mph, out of the
south- southeast. Conditions remain dry with clear skies. Overnight
low temperatures for tonight are forecast to be similar to last
night`s given similar conditions.

By Friday, the weather pattern begins to change as the ridge moves
off towards the east and a low pressure system migrates southward
along the Pacific Northwest/northern California coast. South-southwest
winds will increase across northern Arizona for Friday afternoon
with gusts of 25-35 mph as the pressure gradient tightens.
Temperatures look to remain above average on Friday, however, not
quite as warm as this afternoon`s. In regards to fire weather,
given updated fuels intel from this morning, concerns are low at
this time even with minimum humidity in the 10-20% range and
gustier winds.

A cooling trend persists through this weekend as a low pressure
system slowly makes its way through California and Nevada.
Afternoon southwest winds will remain gusty each day, 20-30 mph on
Saturday followed by 30-40 mph on Sunday. Cloud cover increases
Sunday evening and into Monday as the low treks across Arizona and
Utah. The NBM continues to suggest little to no POPs for Monday,
however, not too confident in the completely dry scenario at this
time. Using a blend of the ECMWF Ens and GEFS, 15-30% POPs remain
in the forecast for Monday afternoon and evening. With that said,
much of the region should remain dry as we head into the rest of
next week.

The low looks to move quickly through the West by Tuesday,
however, conditions will likely remain unsettled with cool
temperatures and breezy to gusty afternoon winds as low pressure
develops across the northern states. Precipitation chances are
little to none at this time with higher confidence in the
temperatures and winds.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 12/00Z through Saturday 13/00Z...VFR
conditions. Light winds 10 kts or less overnight through 15Z
Friday. S-SW winds gradually increase through the late morning
and afternoon, reaching 15-20 kts gusting to 25-30 kts.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 13/00Z through Monday 15/00Z...VFR conditions.
S-SW winds 15-20 kts gusting 25-30 kts Saturday afternoon,
remaining gusty over the higher terrain Saturday night. Winds
Sunday S-SW 20-25 kts gusting 30-35 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Warm and dry. South to
southwest winds at 10-20 mph gusting 25-35 mph with minimum RH
values ranging from 10-20% each afternoon.

Sunday through Tuesday...Dry on Sunday with increasing moisture and
isolated showers moving in for Monday. Dry weather is forecast to
return on Tuesday. Look for gusty afternoon southwest to west winds
each day. Turning much cooler.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ/LaGuardia
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff