Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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108 FXUS65 KFGZ 300320 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 820 PM MST Mon Apr 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions will continue through the week with breezy afternoon winds. Temperatures will generally remain near normal. Another low pressure system could affect northern Arizona this weekend, with wind gusts up to 35-45 mph possible by Sunday afternoon. && .UPDATE...It`s a mostly clear/calm evening across northern Arizona, with a few high clouds across Apache County. Winds have mostly died down, minus a few breezes along higher terrain. Another day of above-normal temperatures is in store for tomorrow along with mostly sunny skies and breezy afternoon winds. Nice, spring-like weather is expected to continue through much of the week, with little fluctuation as we move toward the weekend. The previous forecast/discussion remains on track, so no updates were made. && .PREV DISCUSSION /422 PM MST/...Dry and quasi-zonal flow will continue over the southwestern U.S. through the week. Southwesterly wind gusts up to 15-25 mph will be possible each afternoon through the end of the week. Temperatures will generally remain near normal. There is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the strength and evolution of the next system forecast to affect northern Arizona Sunday. The operational GFS is by far the most aggressive with this system, progging the low to strengthen as it digs into the southern California coast. The operational ECMWF is more mellow with this system, keeping it an open wave as it passes harmlessly to the north. The ensemble mean solution also keeps this low relatively weaker than the operational GFS, so will follow with the ensemble mean for now. Regardless, wind gusts should kick up into the 35-45 mph range by Sunday afternoon with continued dry conditions expected. && .AVIATION...Tuesday 30/00Z through Wednesday 01/00Z...VFR conditions with SW winds 10-20 kts, becoming light and variable after 03Z. SW winds increase to 10-15 kts after 18Z. OUTLOOK...Wednesday 01/00Z through Friday 03/00Z...VFR conditions with SW winds 10-20 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday through Wednesday...Dry conditions with warming temperatures continue through Wednesday. Breezy southwest winds 10-20 mph Tuesday, increasing to 30-40 mph on Wednesday. Minimum RH values between 10-20% each day. Thursday through Saturday...Dry conditions continue. Slightly cooler temperatures Thursday, then warming Friday and Saturday. Northeast winds Thursday morning becoming southwest in the afternoon. Southwest winds 15-25 mph on Friday and Saturday with daily minimum RH values around 10-20%. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Konieczny/TM AVIATION...Meola FIRE WEATHER...Meola For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff