Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 222200
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
300 PM MST Fri Mar 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Increasing southwest winds on Saturday will give way
to unsettled weather, with rain and snow showers at times from
Saturday night into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A large trough of low pressure along the West Coast
will move eastward and impact the weather over northern Arizona
into next week. For the rest of today, variable high clouds and
southwest breezes have started with temperatures above average for
this time of year.

Saturday - The low pressure will move closer to Arizona with
increasing southwest winds. A wind advisory has been issued for
much of the higher elevations of northern Arizona and on the lee
of the Mogollon Rim for the afternoon hours. Sustained
speeds of 20-30 mph are likely, with some gusts of 35-45 mph,
strongest over the Little Colorado River Valley. Temperatures
will begin to decrease. A few showers could develop over
northwestern Coconino County late in the day.

Saturday night through Sunday - the low pressure system will move
into Arizona bringing periods of rain and snow. At this time, two
periods of enhanced shower activity are likely, the first
spreading NW to SE from Saturday evening through Sunday morning
with the initial frontal band with snow levels falling rapidly
from around 7000 ft down to 5000 ft. Up to 2" of snow above 6000
ft during this period. The second period of enhanced showers is
expected Sunday afternoon and evening as the main low moves over
northern Arizona. Additional accumulation of up to 2" possible
above around 6500 ft, with localized impacts to travel especially
toward sunset and into the evening.

Monday through Tuesday night- the main low will move east of
Arizona a cold northwest flow remains with showery weather
continuing. Snow levels stay around 6000-6500 ft, with some light
accumulations.

Wednesday and Thursday - High pressure moves over the state on
Wednesday...and by Thursday the next trough approaches the West
Coast with southwest winds increasing.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 23/00Z through Sunday 24/00Z...VFR conditions
persist through Saturday morning with SCT-BKN mid and upper-level
clouds. Southwest winds 10-15 kts gusting up to 20 kts, becoming
10 kts or less by 03Z.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 24/00Z through Tuesday 26/00Z...Periods of
MVFR/IFR VIS and CIGS by Saturday night and Sunday due to
scattered SHRA/SHSN. Southwest winds gusting 25-35 kts on
Saturday, followed by west-southwest gusts 20-35 kts on Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Sunday...A storm system approaching
Arizona on Saturday will bring increased southwest winds gusting 35
to 45 mph. The stronger winds will shift to eastern Arizona on
Sunday. The accompanying cold front will bring a chance for rain and
mountain snow Saturday evening through Sunday. Temperatures will be
20 degrees colder by Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Cold and unsettled weather continues with
another good chance (30-60%) of rain and mountain snow on Tuesday.
Breezy westerly winds around 15 to 25 mph are expected each day.
Drier weather returns Wednesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon MST /1 PM MDT/ to 6 PM MST /7 PM MDT/
Saturday for AZZ004-006>009-012>017-039-040.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...MCT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff


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