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000
FXUS64 KFWD 210710
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
210 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Monday Afternoon/

Not all is lost if you were wanting at least half of your weekend
to be salvageable for outdoor activities. However, widespread
rainfall the past 24 hours will likely result in very saturated
soils, as well as swollen creeks and rivers across the area. The
heavier axis of rainfall that models had across especially eastern
Central Texas ended up being flipped as heavier rainfall of 1 to
3" ended occur along and north of I-20 and across all of North
Texas. However, Central Texas wasn`t completely left out with most
areas seeing 0.5 to 1.5". There was a few isolated, higher
rainfall exceptions from Dallas east into northern Ellis Co and
into Kaufman Co, as well as northeastern Wise Co into far northern
Denton/far southern Cooke counties where isolated 4"+ amounts
fell. Dallas Love Field saw their daily record for 4/20 shattered
with 4.22" (old record was 2.09"). DFW airport set a record with
2.34" (old record 1.52"). Waco Regional Airport, though less still
enjoyed a nice rainfall of 1.25" for the date (well below the
record of 3.44").

Fortunately, strong subsidence behind our departing mid level
disturbance and a rapid intrusion of drier air from the north will
help to scatter out the low level cloud canopy by this afternoon.
Partly to mostly sunny afternoon skies will allow temperatures to
recover into the lower to mid 60s after a very cool start in the
mid 40s to the lower 50s with strong ridging at the surface.
Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph and mostly cloudy skies may make it
feel a bit chilly this morning, but compared to the the stormy
conditions and 50s on Saturday it`ll be a nicer day in comparison.
A broad surface ridge arrives tonight with dry northwest flow
aloft. Outside of a few passing high clouds, the light winds and
mostly clear conditions allow for the area to fall well into the
40s. With the saturated soils, I can`t rule out some patchy ground
(or as some call it, graveyard fog) to form in the rural areas by
sunrise Monday. This moisture should also help lows stay up a few
degrees than say if the ground was dry. Light southerly winds will
slowly return on Monday, as northwest flow transition to a low
amplitude ridge aloft. This will result in sunny conditions with
highs around 70 degrees for the entire region.

05/Marty

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 327 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024/
/Sunday Night Onward/

Expect a pleasant end to the weekend as the region finds itself on
the back end of a departing upper trough. Ridging will begin to
build in by Sunday night, with the surface high sliding overtop the
region Monday morning. Light winds and generally clear skies will
allow for efficient radiational cooling to take place, promoting
even cooler temperatures to start the workweek. Expect Monday
morning lows in the 40s region-wide, making for a slightly chilly
commute. The presence of upper level ridging and the return of
southerly surface winds will promote a dry and warming forecast
through early week.

By Tuesday, a shortwave disturbance will round the periphery of
the ridge, sending a weak cold front south toward the Red River
Valley. The front looks to stall somewhere between the Red River
and north of I-20, but the exact location remains uncertain as
59% of total ensemble members shows the front a bit north of the
OUN/FWD CWA border and the rest a bit south. This uncertainty
correlates to the northward retreat of rain chances late Tuesday
into Wednesday in the most recent NBM guidance as compared to the
previous forecast. The exact location of the stalled boundary and
its attendant midweek rain chances will become clearer in the
coming days as more high-res guidance grabs hold of this time
period.

Meanwhile, an upper low will move onshore and advance towards the
Central Plains midweek. At the surface, warm air advection will
ramp up as highs return to the 70s and 80s by Wednesday.
Dewpoints in the 60s will be brought northward across the region
in response to the incoming low, with a sharpening dryline taking
residence to our west and setting the stage for our next shot at
hazardous spring storms over late week. While a bit too early to
split the hairs of exact locations of storms and threats, current
parameter space shows deep layer shear and lapse rates sufficient
enough for strong to severe storms beginning Thursday. The GEFS
is much more "excited" for this potential with higher
probabilities of of greater SBCAPE and bulk shear on Thursday
compared to the GEPS and EPS, which brings in an additional layer
of uncertainty to the forecast.

Current guidance shows the dryline feature to remain to our west
through the weekend. Additional upper level disturbances
will transit across the Central Plains, promoting periodic
showers and storms through next weekend. Regarding severe
potential for late week and weekend, all three are expected much
of the morning hours, before scattering by/after 18z. Ensembles
are currently showing a signal for higher SBCAPE and bulk wind
shear during this time. However, it is well too early to cry wolf
on severe storms until more guidance is able to view next weekend.
Nonetheless, it is April in Texas and the potential for severe
storms will need to be held in the back of the mind regarding
preparations for late this week and weekend. Flooding may also
become a concern as PWATs near and in excess of 1.5" will be
present throughout late next week and weekend. All in all, make
sure to keep an eye on the forecast and any more significant
details as they become available.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

Improving flying conditions for both commercial and private
aviation continues to occur rapidly within the D10 airspace,
especially the DFW Metro airports where VFR cigs AoA 5 kft will
only continue to rise and become broken after sunrise. Waco
Regional Airport will remain impacted by slow rising MVFR cigs
through 12z, but similar trends will occur later this morning and
afternoon.

Strong subsidence immediately in wake of the departing upper
disturbance and MCS over Southeast Texas will combine with a
rapid intrusion of dry air below 850mb for a continued improvement
throughout the day.

Northerly sustained surface winds around 5 to 10 kts will veer
northeasterly at 10-15 kts later this morning, before diminishing
later this afternoon and becoming near calm after nightfall this
evening.

05/Marty

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    47  71  55  78  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
Waco                46  70  52  77  60 /   0   0   0   0   5
Paris               43  68  49  74  58 /   0   0   0   5  10
Denton              45  69  52  78  60 /   0   0   0   0  10
McKinney            44  70  53  76  60 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dallas              47  71  55  78  62 /   0   0   0   0  10
Terrell             45  70  51  75  60 /   0   0   0   0  10
Corsicana           46  70  53  77  60 /   0   0   0   0   5
Temple              46  70  52  78  60 /   0   0   0   0   5
Mineral Wells       44  70  52  81  60 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$