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000
FXUS63 KGLD 151105
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
505 AM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning in effect today for much of the Tri-State
  area.

- Low confidence for severe thunderstorms weather this evening,
  generally along east of HWY 83.

- High Wind Watch issued for Tuesday. Northwest winds forecast
  to gust around 65 mph, possibly higher, during the day
  Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 423 AM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Ahead of a low pressure system moving through the area overnight
Monday, high temperatures will warm into the 80s to low 90s across
the area. Southwesterly dry air will collide with the southeasterly
flow from the Gulf and cause a dryline to form over the area. The
moist southeasterly flow has been increasing dew points across the
northeastern half of the CWA overnight. The southwesterly winds
during the day will push this line to the east, but how far is the
million dollar question, especially regarding the severe weather
potential this evening/overnight. Current expectation are for the
dryline to setup along a line from about Oakley, KS to Trenton, NE.
Locations west of the dryline will see prolonged critical fire
weather conditions, hence the Red Flag Warning. RH values will drop
into the mid-single digits while winds will gust over 30 kts for 3-6
hours. Maximum wind gusts could reach near 40 kts. Locations to the
east could see brief critical fire weather conditions, but not see
them for more than 1-2 hours.

Blowing dust is still a concern this afternoon, and confidence for
less than 1 mile visibility in blowing dust is around 20-25%. Lapse
rates to support blowing dust are found over most of the area
(namely the southeastern 3/4 of the CWA), but there is an area
around Gove county that is more likely to see blowing dust. This
area is being highlighted due to the GFS showing a stronger area of
surface winds.

This evening and tonight, the low pressure system will bring a cold
front through the CWA which will start a general cooling trend for
the remainder of the period. The FROPA is expected to start around
3Z Tuesday from the northwest. Precipitation is expected to initiate
with the dryline in the evening, around 0-6Z Tuesday, and move
eastward. The thunderstorms are forecast across the eastern CWA.
These storms are very conditional and there is about a 50% chance
that they will not form. However, if they do form, they will
explode! SPC has placed a Slight risk for severe storms over
locations along and east of Highway 83. In the very far eastern
fringes of the CWA, there is an Enhanced risk due to the hail
threat. A dryline will setup near the western extent of the Slight
risk and be the trigger for the storms. Later in the evening, the
FROPA will add fuel to the environment and potentially send the
storms into overdrive with additional shear. Soundings from the NAM-
12 near Norton, KS show 3000-4000 J/kg of MU and SFC CAPE with LCLs
dropping to well under 1000m near 0-3Z. 0-1 km shear around this
time also increases to 25+ kts. Mid-level lapse rates range from 8.5-
9.5 C/km around 0-15Z. These ingredients suggest a risk of
significant hail and potentially tornadic storms overnight. In
contrast, the RAP13 is a lukewarm bowl of nothing. The RAP sounding
in the same location at 3Z shows a massive dry slot which would mean
absolutely no storms.

Climatologically speaking, this is the time of year we start seeing
maximum nocturnal convection. PoPs are highest Tuesday morning (up
to 70%) and taper off to the north-northeast through the afternoon
Tuesday. The higher PoPs do not correspond to the highest severe
weather threat. Instead, the increased PoPs are based on more
stratiform rain from wrap-around moisture. Majority of the PoPs and
QPF remain along and north of HWY 40, which would complicate things
in the afternoon Tuesday.

Overnight tonight, temperatures will cool into the upper 30s to 40s.

Behind the cold front Tuesday morning, northwesterly winds are
expected to strengthen. Across the southwestern CWA. Sustained winds
look to be around 30-40 kts with gusts approaching and exceeding 45-
55 kts expected for the most of the Tri-State area. A High Wind
Watch has been issued for portions of the CWA as confidence grew
this shift of High Winds occurring. If little to no precipitation
falls in the southwestern CWA (60% chance of occurrence) blowing
dust will be a concern in the early/mid afternoon, before the lapse
rates drop.

Temperatures Tuesday are a bit tricky due to the unknown extent of
the cloud coverage the cold front and wrap-around moisture will
bring in. The current forecast is for max Ts to be in the mid 60s in
the west/northwest and mid 70s in the southeast.

A few thunder showers are possible Tuesday evening/early night in
the northeastern CWA (~20%), but will exit the area before midnight.
Overnight temperatures will drop into the mid 30s and mid 40s with
warmer temperatures in the east.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 102 AM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

The latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF show upper level ridging over the
cwa for Wednesday. For Wednesday night into the first half of next
weekend, the focus shifts to a cutoff upper low over the northern
Plains. This system slowly shifts eastward through the latter
portion of the week into Saturday, before weak ridging aloft for
Sunday, followed by another shortwave next Monday coming off the
central Rockies. For the latter portion of this week though, with
the upper low fairly stagnant, zonal flow sets up and is broken by a
couple weak shortwaves. The first one around Wednesday night into
Thursday does now have differences in track with the GFS being a bit
further north with overall QPF. ECMWF has been consistent with the
latest NBM, so have followed suit.

At the surface, high pressure north of the cwa, combined with low
pressure moving off the central Rockies will provide an easterly
upslope component to enhance low level moisture in tandem with the
first shortwave. Initially there will be enough instability to allow
for an isolated thunderstorm with shower activity, but going into
Thursday as colder air works into the region, NW zones will begin to
see a sw/rw mix. As temps warm through the day, the sw/rw mix
remains focused over NW zones, with little to no accum.

The wrap-around flow for the surface low will bring the chance for
gusts up to the 30-40 mph range, tapering down by 18z Thursday.

The second shortwave will be a bit weaker for the tail-end of the
week, focused on the easterly upslope that forms at the surface.
ECMWF still remains more aggressive in the areal coverage of precip.
GFS surface ridge is centered more over the northern Plains. Overall
a bit more colder for precip arrival and do expect a bit more in
terms of snow showers coverage, especially west of Highway 25.
Potential for a half inch of accum to occur west of Hwy 25/along and
north of Hwy 36.

System clear the region late Saturday into Sunday providing a nice
warmup as southerly flow returns to the area. GFS/ECMWF do differ in
timing/placement of the shortwave for next Monday, but temps warm
enough with persistent southerly flow, so rain is p-type expected.
Some instability present so can`t rule out an isolated storm.

For temps, highs on Wednesday will range in the 70s to around 80F.
Warmest locales will be south of the Interstate. Thursday on through
Saturday, a mix of mid 40s west to mid 50s east will give way to
mainly mid and upper 40s by Saturday. A few locales will be around
the 50F mark. For Sunday, warming trend resumes with upper 50s to
lower 60s expected. Going into next Monday, warmer with lower to mid
70s.

Overnight lows Wednesday night will range widely with 30s west
transitioning to lower 40s south and east. Lower to mid 30s for
Thursday night will give way to a range from the upper 20s to lower
30s for both Friday and Saturday nights. Warming up for Sunday and
next Monday nights with 30s and 40s respectively.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 457 AM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

VFR conditions at both KGLD and KMCK are expected to persist
through the period, with a catch. KGLD and areas to the
southeast are expected to see patchy blowing dust. If some
blowing dust moves over KGLD, visibilities would become reduced,
however there is only about 15% confidence that IMC will occur.
Winds will be strong and gusty today from the south. Overnight
they will become westerly then northwesterly at the end of the
period. As they shift, winds will weaken but expect very strong
winds (50+ kts gusts) tomorrow, namely near KGLD. LLWS this morning will
continue until winds mix down (around 15Z) and the same will
occur tonight as winds are calmer and shift. KMCK could see
severe storms near the site or to the east, but confidence is
low it will impact categories at KMCK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 423 AM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

The Red Flag Warning for today remains on-track. In the warned areas,
south to southwest winds will gust in the 35 to 45 mph range and
minimum humidity values will be in the single digits.

The Fire Weather Watch has been canceled. The counties that were
still in the Watch are not expected to have <15% humidities for 3
hours or longer. They still may briefly see critical fire weather
conditions, but moisture advection is forecast in this area, keeping
them more moist.

Overnight tonight, winds will slowly shift to the northwest behind a
cold front and then increase in speed. On Tuesday, strong northwest
winds, gusting 40 to 65 mph are anticipated with the highest gusts
generally west of Highway 27. A High Wind Watch has been issued for
the counties expected to exceed 40 MPH sustained winds or gusts in
excess of 60 MPH. Minimum relative humidity will be higher, in the 30
to 45 percent range. There will also be a good chance for light
rainfall Tuesday night with amounts generally from a trace to maybe
one quarter inch.

Elevated to near critical conditions south of Interstate 70 are
possible on Wednesday. RH values look to be in the upper teens
and winds will gust to around 20-25 kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ this morning to 10
    PM MDT /11 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ001>003-013>015-
     027>029-041-042.
     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for KSZ001-013-027-028-041-042.
CO...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this
     evening for COZ252>254.
     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for COZ090>092.
NE...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ this morning to 10
    PM MDT /11 PM CDT/ this evening for NEZ079-080.
     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for NEZ079.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...CA
FIRE WEATHER...