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000
FXUS64 KHUN 120231
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
931 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 931 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

A shortwave aloft continues to rotate around the backside of the
surface low over the Ohio Valley this evening. Just enough CAPE
(100-300 J/KG) has been shown in SPC meso-analysis along with some
decent low level lapse rates between 7.0 and 7.5 degrees/km over
western Tennessee that is moving east ahead of the boundary
associated with this feature at the surface.

This has allowed a few scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop over the past few hours that began in NW AL and western
Tennessee and have pushed southeast into northern Alabama. This
activity continues to weaken and move off to the SE towards
western Georgia. This activity will likely only affect locations
near and east of the I-65 corridor the remainder of the evening
hours. A storm or two could produce some lightning and gusty winds
to 40 mph in northeastern Alabama before they move into Georgia.
Expect this activity to move into Georgia based on radar trends
between 11 PM and midnight.

Winds have dropped off this evening near boundary associated with
the shortwave aloft. However, well ahead of it (east of the I-65
corridor) and behind it, they remain around 10 to 15 mph with some
higher gusts. Expect winds to become more northwesterly around or
after midnight behind the the boundary as it moves east through
the area. Winds should pick up a bit more to around 10 mph gusting
to around 20 mph at times. These winds despite clearing skies
should keep temperatures from dropping much below the 45 to 50
degree mark in most locations. This is a tad warmer than previous
guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Sunday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

A deepening closed low in the mid-levels will shift eastward
across the Lower Great Lakes region tonight and into western New
England by tomorrow afternoon, with dry NW flow aloft occurring
across our region in the wake of this system. That said, latest
guidance suggests that a notable mid-level vort max will dig
southeastward from the OH Valley into coastal portions of NC/SC
tomorrow, which may result in some clouds and showers to our
immediate N/E, but we will maintain a dry forecast at this time.
Gusty WNW winds at the surface (possibly very close to advisory
criteria once again in our higher terrain locations east of I-65)
will subside around sunset Friday as a ridge shifts eastward into
the Lower MS Valley, and light winds/clear skies will lead to
another cool morning on Saturday featuring lows in the l-m 40s.
Abundant sunshine and light winds will create a beautiful Spring
day on Saturday, with highs rebounding into the m-u 70s.

During the period from Saturday night-Sunday night, the center of
the low-level ridge to our south will migrate eastward into the
western North Atlantic, allowing southwesterly return flow to
strengthen across our region and promoting highs in the u70s-l80s
on Sunday (in spite of a notable increase in high clouds related
to weak upper air disturbance that will cross the region from the
NW late Sunday afternoon). However, it appears as if boundary
layer moisture return will be impeded by the western extension of
the ridge into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with lows more
gradually warming into the l-m 50s bu Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Afternoon Update: Overall, there have been no significant changes
to the extended portion of the forecast today, as global model
consensus suggests that an increasingly warm/moist airmass will
likely be in place across the region for much of the work week. At
this point, it appears as if the position of an amplified
subtropical ridge across the southeastern CONUS will deflect the
dominant storm track to the N/W of our region for much of the
week. However, a slightly higher chance for showers and
thunderstorms may occur on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning
associated with the southern end of a slow-moving cold front
(which may ultimately stall across the TN Valley).

A southerly flow gradually returning moisture to the region will
start bringing more clouds as we go into the new week. Highs
Monday under partly cloudy skies should warm once again into the
lower 80s.

Enough moisture should result in more clouds than sky Tuesday
onward. Daytime heating and lift should return to bring lower end
shower and thunderstorm chances over our more NW locations Tue
afternoon and evening. Similar lower end rain chances are
expected, again more over the west and north portions of the area
Wednesday and Thursday. But with a warmer southerly flow, and
despite the clouds and rain chances, daily high temperatures in
the Tue/Wed/Thu timeframe should rise into the lower 80s each day.
Lows should range mainly in the lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 704 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

VFR conditions are in place at both terminals right now. Expect
these to be the predominate conditions through 2Z at KMSL and 3Z
at KHSV. However, a tempo group was added for SHRA until then as
additional scattered showers rotate around a slow moving surface
low over the Ohio Valley and could affect the terminals. Believe
the threat for these SHRA will end after 3Z. However, if one does
impact either terminal, some MVFR to IFR VSBYS or CIGS could
briefly occur. Winds will remain between 10 and 15 knots gusting
to around 25 knots through the TAF period and VFR conditions
should remain in place after 03Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...KTW