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000
FXUS63 KICT 231131
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
631 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic storm chances to begin Wednesday night and last through
  Sunday with strong to severe storms possible.

- Storms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning may be strong
with small hail the main concern.

- Severe storms are possible along and west of I-135 late
  Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Zonal upper flow is present across the central plains this morning
with a weak front/trough at the surface sliding southward across
Kansas. Modest moisture continues to pile up on this boundary, and
isolated showers and storms will be possible across far eastern
Kansas through the morning hours as the trough progresses southward.
Despite northeast winds, slightly above normal temperatures are
expected this afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

The aforementioned boundary and the associated mid-level baroclinic
zone should stall out across central Oklahoma on Wednesday. Mid-
level moisture transport should increase Wednesday afternoon and
evening, and this should help to trigger scattered showers and
storms across much of Oklahoma. Gradually, the mid-level baroclinic
zone will drift northeastward, and scattered showers and storms will
accompany it as they moves into southern and eastern Kansas
overnight Wednesday through Thursday morning. Modest elevated
instability and shear may be able to support strong storms capable
of producing small hail. However, this area of elevated storms will
likely be progressive and move quickly into northeast Kansas and
Missouri during the day on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the start of our active weather pattern is expected to
begin Thursday afternoon as a potent western CONUS trough ejects
into the central plains. Before delving into the details, it should
be noted that forecast confidence remains somewhat low. That being
said, a dryline is anticipated to reside across western Kansas and
the OK/TX Panhandles late Thursday afternoon. Synoptic lift and mid-
level cooling should help to erode the cap, and isolated to widely
scattered storms are anticipated to develop across western Kansas
and move eastward during the evening hours. However, CIN is expected
to develop after dark, and these storms will struggle to get into
the forecast area Thursday evening. Nevertheless, as the Pacific
front merges with the dryline, additional storms are progged to
develop and move eastward into portions of central and south-central
Kansas late Thursday night. Storm mode will likely be mixed to
linear, damaging winds and large hail will be the primary concerns
for locations along and west of the I-135 corridor.

As mentioned previously, models have been a bit more progressive
with the dryline/Pacific front on Friday, and probabilities for
severe weather appear to be shifting eastward as a result. While the
parameter space does support organized storms, most likely in the
form of supercells, height rises overspreading the warm sector
during the afternoon hours will make it may be difficult for storms
to develop along and east of the Flint Hills. To further complicate
the forecast, Saturday is likely entirely dependent on what occurs
on Friday, but long range models are signaling a second trough
ejecting into the plains during the afternoon hours. Assuming low-
level moisture recovers, another round of severe weather is possible
across Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Rain chances are expected to
end by Sunday as moisture is swept eastward into the Ozarks and
Lower Midwest, but low storm chances are still possible across far
southeast Kansas early. There are still a number of details that
need to be hashed out over the next few days, so stay tuned for
updates to the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 622 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Only aviation issue will be a wind shift set to move through the
area today.

Weak cold front/wind shift is expected to continue tracking
south today and will flip winds around to the north after it
passes through. Front is set to move through KRSL-KGBD in the
next couple of hours and KHUT-KICT in the 15-17z time frame.
Northwest winds will quickly increase behind the front with
gusts 35 to 40 mph possible. However, the strong winds will be
short-lived and will only last a few hours before decreasing.
Confidence remains high that VFR conditions will remain in place
through the next 24 hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Today: Breezy northeast winds will support a brief period of
very high grassland fire danger during the afternoon hours
across portions of Russell and Barton Counties.

Friday: Much drier air and gusty southwest winds will support
very high grassland fire danger across portions of central and
south-central Kansas during the afternoon hours.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...JC