Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 251044
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
644 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry high pressure will build in through early this
week with a return to more seasonable temperatures by Tuesday.
Rain chances will return with the next cold front Wednesday
into Thursday. Dry high pressure will build in behind the cold
front into Friday with a warming trend through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Stratocu over the waters has come onshore over portions of the
coast, producing mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions with ceiling
around 2500-3000 ft. Other high clouds will stream in from the
SW. Should combine to produce periods of partly to mostly cloudy
skies at times today. Clouds helped to prevent temps from
dropping in places with most places in the mid to upper 30s
early this morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
After a chilly start to the day, sunshine, filtered at times
through high clouds, will help boost temps into the 60s. Light
northerly winds should remain between 5 to 10 mph and should
veer around slowly to E-NE. Dewpoint temps will increase slowly
through today. Overnight lows tonight will be several degrees
warmer than last night. Kept any frost out of the forecast, but
would not be totally surprised to see some patchy frost in
traditionally cooler and wind sheltered spots. Temps should
remain closer to 40 most places with a few spots getting down to
the mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Modest ridging pattern over the area pushes offshore throughout the
day Tuesday. Moisture increases from the return flow in the low
levels, while southwesterly flow aloft increases ahead of the next
trough pattern. Still, Tuesday looks relatively nice, with no rain
in the forecast just yet. Highs in the mid-to-upper 60s, with a few
spots possibly hitting 70. Moisture advection and a slight increase
in forcing may bring some showers to the far western parts of the
Pee Dee region Tuesday night, but most should stay dry. Lows in the
low-to-mid 50s.

Pattern change becomes much more noticeable by Wednesday. Shortwave
disturbances ahead of the main trough pattern bring consistent lobes
of vorticity to work with. A series of fronts move through the area
Wednesday and Wednesday night...the main surface cold front that`s
associated with this trough, and then a secondary front associated
with a surface low from the Gulf. Moisture really cranks up here,
with precipitable water values eclipsing 1.5 inches. Looking at a
good soaking rain at this point, aided by all the forcing and the
fronts slowing down as they hit the area. Could record between 1-3
inches of rain this period. Instability looks pretty meager overall,
but still can`t rule out a few rumbles of thunder. Highs Wednesday
in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Lows Wednesday night in the mid-to-
upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Rain looks to continue Thursday, as the fronts look to temporarily
stall across the area. Highs top off in the upper 60s. Rain chances
finally start to taper off from the west to the east Thursday night.
Cold air advection kicks on, and lows dip into the lower 40s.

Chamber of commerce weather kicks in Friday into next weekend. Not a
chance of rain in sight. Temperatures look to be near or just below
normal Friday and Friday night. Then, temperatures shoot up above
normal, getting well up into the mid-to-upper 70s over the weekend.
Some inland areas may even try to hit 80 on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR with some stratocu moving onshore over the coast, affecting
coastal terminals periodically today, ILM, CRE, and MYR.
Otherwise expect sct to bkn cirrus around 25-30k through today.
With sfc high pressure well off to the north, 5 to 10 kt NE
winds expected today with some gusts and a slight veering to a
more easterly direction heading into late today. Plenty of dry
air with just enough wind to keep any fog out of forecast.

Extended Outlook...Predominately VFR. Vis/cig restrictions will
be possible during early mornings on Tuesday and Wednesday due
to weak winds in tandem with increasing low level moisture.
Additional restrictions are possible for Wednesday and Thursday
as a frontal system slowly traverses the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue
through today as NE winds 15 to 20 kts with gusts to 25 kts
slowly diminish to 10 to 15 KT with gusts to 20 kts into this
afternoon. Winds will veer slightly from NE to a more E-NE
direction. Seas of 4 to 8 FT will slowly subside through this
afternoon and into tonight. Waters south of Cape Fear should
drop below SCA thresholds by early Tues morning, but SCA
conditions will probably linger through Tues aftn with longer
period NE-E swells increasing slightly into Tues.

Tuesday through Friday...NE winds at 10-15kts gradually become
easterly by late Tuesday, and continue to veer to the southeast
through early Thursday morning. Seas initially 3-4ft at the coast,
and 5-6ft 20nm away from shore (the southeast NC coastal waters may
still be in the long-fused Small Craft Advisory). Seas gradually
decrease to 2-4ft everywhere Wednesday and Wednesday night. Low
pressure moves over the waters Thursday, creating a varying wind
direction at first, and then settling on a stiff northwesterly wind
Thursday evening through Friday. Winds look to gust up to 25-30kts,
and seas away from shore in southeast NC may try to poke up to 6ft
again.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ087-096-105.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...RGZ/IGB


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