177
FXUS63 KILX 110734
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
234 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The weekend is panning out to be dry and pleasant with increasing
  warmth through Sunday.

- Soaking rains and a few storms return on Monday and linger
  through Tuesday. There remains a 40-60% chance that rainfall
  totals will reach around one inch during that time, which could
  send a few rivers toward bank full.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

The latest IR satellite images show a band of mid clouds drifting
south through Illinois as a cold front traverses the area. The
aurora was still visible through the clouds, as an impressive G5
solar storm impacts the CONUS.

As for precip along the cold front, showers have been spotty to
say the least with the dry airmass limiting any measurable rain
in most of the area. Those showers should depart into Indiana by
sunrise or shortly after, with nearly full sunshine this morning.
Deep mixing will dry out the air today, as surface dewpoints dip
into the lower 40s. However, afternoon cumulus will redevelop due
to steeper low level lapse rates in the post-cold frontal
airmass. Northwest wind gusts will top out in the 25 to 30 mph
range early this afternoon, adding a cooler feel to this below
normal temperature day.

Southerly return flow on Sunday will help boost high temps into
the low 80s west of I-55, with upper 70s east of I-55. Surface
dewpoints will make a return to the 50s, in preps for the onset of
the next wave of rain early Monday morning. Surface cyclogenesis
will develop over the central Plains as a cold front makes
southward push from the upper Midwest toward the Ohio River
Valley. The two will intersect as the low reaches southern
Illinois late Monday night into Tuesday, setting the stage for
wetting rains much of the day and night Monday. QPF totals in that
24 hour period look to climb over 0.75" in most of central IL (70%
chance). Instability params are marginal for thunder for most of
the day Monday, but increase Monday night into Tuesday as frontal
convergence increases and mid-level lapse rates steepen. Severe
weather potential appears low amid weaker shear profiles, and a
triple point that passes well to the south of IL.

Our coolest day of the next week will be Tuesday, as highs remain
in the 60s north of I-70 (70-80% chance per DESI Grand Ensemble).

The break in the rain Wednesday will be short-lived as the next
frontal system progresses through the mid-Mississippi River Valley
area Thursday and Friday. Rain and storm chances late week will
keep the recent wet trends in full swing.

Shimon

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. A front is approaching
KPIA as of 04Z and should reach KCMI toward 08Z. With it, a period
of ceilings near 8,000 feet will occur, along with a few showers.
Winds switch to the northwest behind it, and will start gusting to
20-25 knots by late Saturday morning before diminishing with
sunset.

Geelhart

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$