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000
FXUS63 KJKL 250715
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
315 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures persist through tonight, with a bit
  of frost in some valleys each night.

- A warming trend begins on Friday, with well above normal
  temperatures then expected to start the new week.

- Thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening to the
  west of a Middlesboro to Flemingsburg line. Thunderstorms are
  then possible areawide from late Monday afternoon through
  Tuesday, and again Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 314 AM EDT THU APR 25 2024

Surface high pressure continues to nose into the area from the
northwest and north under the negative vorticity advection region
between upper ridging over the Central US and downstream troughing
over the East Coast. This will support mostly sunny skies and light
north winds today, though some brief low stratus is possible in some
areas in the morning before burning off by midday. With the weak
cool advection from the north, highs will be slightly below normal
in the lower 60s north to lower 70s south.

Winds veer to easterly and then southeasterly overnight as surface
high pressure wedges down the eastern slopes of the Appalachians
while a surface low and attendant cold front move out onto the
Central Plains. With warm advection beginning in the southwest while
the surface high remains influencing the northeastern half of the
CWA, expect a wide range of temperature and sky cover, with warmer
temperatures in the 40s with increasing clouds over the southwestern
counties, while good radiational cooling in the sheltered valleys
will mean lows in the mid 30s and possibly cooler with some patchy
frost possible.

A warm front aloft moves across the area Friday and brings an
increase in cloud cover and moisture, though that will be mitigated
somewhat in our eastern counties directly downwind from the taller
mountains. Given the best dynamics and thermodynamics remaining west
of the area, and the mitigating influence of downslope drying in the
eastern counties, will only be carrying 20 PoPs or less, with the
best chance of a thunderstorm or two  mainly along and west of I-75
Friday afternoon, but even this is not high confidence given the
lack of instability indicated by most modeling. Nevertheless, even
with the increased cloud cover, the increasing warm advection and
southerly flow temperatures will return to the 70s to near 80
degrees, with warmest temperatures in our eastern counties where the
better downslope warming and drying will occur.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 407 PM EDT WED APR 24 2024

A large trough of low pressure aloft will be in place across the
western half of the CONUS to begin the period. Ridging aloft will
be in place from the western Great Lakes, the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys, eastward to the eastern seaboard down to the Gulf of
Mexico. The models support a scenario where a warm front
associated with a strong Great Plains mid-latitude cyclone will
move into our area from the southwest late Friday morning or early
Friday afternoon. Showers and perhaps an isolated storm will form
and move through the area Friday, Friday night, into early
Saturday morning, as the warm front moves through. The activity
will shift to the north through out the day as the front passes,
and should be confined to an area north of the Mountain Parkway by
early Friday evening. The last bit of rain should be gone by
early to mid Saturday morning, after the parent surface low and
warm front have moved off to our north.

After the front and its parent low have moved away, a subtropical
ridge parked off the southeastern CONUS will strengthen and expand
westward. This ridge will keep the weather around eastern Kentucky
warm and dry over the weekend and into the first of next week.
Another area of low pressure will take shape over the western
Plains Sunday night into early Monday, but will be delayed in
moving into our area, as the stubborn southeastern ridge will be
stubborn to vacate the area. According to the latest models, the
ridge should finally begin to weaken and move off to the east
Monday afternoon, and should allow the central CONUS low to
finally move our way. We should see another round of rain moving
into the area Monday afternoon. This batch of rain is expected to
persist through the day on Tuesday, as the subtropical ridge will
still be exerting enough influence to keep the midwest cyclone
from making an assertive eastward push.

With the models having ridging in place a good portion of time in
the extended, the likelihood of much warmer than normal
temperatures is high. The scenario of rainfall being delayed after
Saturday morning also seem likely considering how strong the
models all have the weekend ridge as it builds westward.
Conditions will also be favorable for some modest ridge valley
temperature differences Saturday night and Tuesday night. No
major weather concerns in the extended forecast at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT THU APR 25 2024

High pressure brings VFR conditions and north to northwest winds
of generally less than 10 kts becoming northeasterly after 00z
Friday. Any fog late tonight will be confined to the river
valleys - and thus not affect the terminals - before clearing out
by 14z Thu.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...CMC