668
FXUS64 KLCH 020854
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
354 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Once again the main story is the severe / flood threat shaping up
for much of the CWA today and tomorrow. Several rounds of showers
and thunderstorms will move across west and north portions of the
CWA. Forecast soundings indicate wind and thermal profile
supportive of severe weather and flooding threat in southeast
Texas and central Louisiana.

The public is urged to monitor weather trends this morning, today,
tonight and tomorrow as we work through this potential of severe
and flood.

11/Calhoun

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

For Sunday, a weak upper level disturbance expected to bring another
chance of showers and thunderstorms, with the highest chances across
Southeast Texas and Central Louisiana north of U.S. 190. Overnight
lows expected in the mid to upper 60s, and afternoon highs in the
mid 80s.

By Monday, a large mid to upper level trough over the Western U.S.
expected to lift rapidly northeast, with most of the moisture and
lift well north of the region. By Tuesday through Thursday, the mid
to upper level pattern will be generally dominated by a large low
over the upper Midwest, a building ridge over the Southern Gulf/NW
Caribbean, with the Southern U.S. remaining predominately in a zonal
flow aloft. Limited moisture and lift resulting in little if any
precipitation. Temperatures will be slowly increasing during this
period. Expect morning lows in the upper 60s to near 70 Monday,
lower to mid 70s Tuesday through Thursday. Afternoon highs in the
mid to upper 80s Monday, upper 80s to lower 90s Tuesday through
Thursday.

08/DML&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Not a lot has changed in the thinking for the aviation forecast.
Low clouds will continue to form over the next few hours with MVFR
conditions possibly down to IFR conditions.

After 02/11z or so, the forecast will depend on how the MCS
develops over Texas and how it moves across the forecast area. At
this time will cover this with TEMPO for storms at KBPT by 02/14z
and PROB30 at all remaining terminals starting at KLCH/KAEX at
02/15z and starting at KLFT/KARA at 02/16z.

If the storm complex does make it through, expect IFR conditions
with low visibility from heavy rainfall along with gusty winds.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

A brief period of increasing rain chances, winds and seas will
take place today ahead of an approaching shortwave trof. No Small
Craft Advisory criteria is anticipated with this disturbance.
Otherwise, onshore flow and mild conditions are anticipated
through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  80  68  79  65 /  90  50  70  10
LCH  81  70  80  70 /  60  40  50  10
LFT  85  72  82  70 /  50  40  50  10
BPT  82  70  82  71 /  60  50  50  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through Friday evening for LAZ027>032-141.

TX...Flood Watch through Friday evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-
     516.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...07