Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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250 FXUS64 KLUB 060506 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1206 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 151 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Low clouds are clearing this morning with temperatures slower to warm across the area, but still expecting high temperatures in the 70s. Current satellite midlevel water vapor analysis shows an upper low spinning over the Great Basin with westerly flow aloft. This system will continue to swing eastward over the Northern Rockies tonight with southwesterly flow aloft. As a result, the surface low across eastern Wyoming will strengthen overnight with an increasing low level jet over West Texas. Thus, breezy southerly surface winds will develop overnight. Upslope flow will also give way to increased low level moisture and the return of low clouds across the area. However, these low clouds will clear much quicker tomorrow morning as the negatively tilted trough pushes into the Plains. The Pacific front will push eastward across the forecast area tomorrow, which will bring dry and breezy west winds. As a result, the dryline will also be pushed eastward across the Rolling Plains through the afternoon. There is a low end threat for a storm or two to develop across the far southeast Texas Panhandle and far eastern Rolling Plains. However, the dryline is likely to be east of the forecast area with little to no chances for any thunderstorms. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 151 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Warm, dry, and breezy conditions will be the main story of the long- term period. Zonal flow aloft will return to the region as the shortwave trough and associated low ejects north into the High Plains Tuesday where it is expected to remain relatively stationary through mid-week. This will allow surface troughing in the lee of the Rockies to develop and influence breezy west to southwest winds across the forecast area which will work to boost temperatures above seasonal norms into the 80s and 90s Tuesday and Wednesday. These breezy conditions in addition to warm temperatures and low minimum RH values may lead to elevated to near critical fire weather concerns, especially across areas on the Caprock and far southwestern Texas Panhandle where there is a lack of fuel moisture. By Thursday, the once stationary low/trough, over the High Plains will kick off to the northeast and sling a cold front through the region. FROPA is expected to track through the FA overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning providing much needed relief from the above normal temperatures with highs in the 70s expected through the end of the week. Ensemble guidance continues to hint at a cutoff low developing across western CONUS late next week. Depending on how far east this system tracks, we could see our next best shot of showers and thunderstorms across the FA. Given the vast amount of uncertainty with timing and evolution of this system have opted to stick with NBM mentionable PoPs for the time being. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Predominantly MVFR ceilings overnight could dip into IFR territory at LBB and PVW until the dryline sweeps off the Caprock by late morning, and eventually past CDS by early afternoon. Breezy S winds will veer SW following the dryline with some gusts near 30 knots at times. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 151 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely tomorrow across the far southwest Texas Panhandle and portions of the South Plains. The Pacific front will bring dry and breezy conditions along the Caprock. Minimum relative humidity values will range from 7 to 13 percent across the Caprock, with west winds of 20 to 30 mph and higher gusts possible. A Red Flag Warning has been issued from Noon to 9 PM CDT tomorrow for the far southwest Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>023-027>029. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...93