Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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250 FXUS64 KMEG 280441 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1141 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 900 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Skies are mostly clear across the region with dry and mild conditions in place. Temperatures as of 9 PM are in the 70s areawide and will dip into the mid 60s as skies continue to clear out and radiational cooling begins. Tomorrow morning the lingering effects of a surface high pressure will come to an end as a cold front approaches from the west. Windy conditions will continue tomorrow as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the front. Showers and thunderstorms will return late tomorrow afternoon into the evening. Some thunderstorms may be strong to severe, mainly along and west of the Mississippi River. Previous forecast remains in great shape, minor tweaks to dew points and winds were made for the overnight period. DNM && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 A warming trend will continue through the rest of the weekend. A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to form ahead of a cold front Sunday night into Monday, where strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds, large hail, and locally heavy rainfall could occur. Warm and wet conditions are expected to continue through the remainder of the week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 A warming trend will continue today as mid-level ridging builds ahead of a mid/upper level trough over the western and central U.S. At the surface, a low pressure center was analyzed over the OK/TX/KS/CO borders. A stationary boundary/warm front extended northeastward across the central and southern Plains into the upper Mid-West, with a cold front extending southward into portions of western Texas. The surface low is expected to move northeast in tandem with the mid-level trough. As this occurs, a cold front will begin to move southeastward toward the Mid-South tomorrow. Ahead of this front, low level wind fields are forecast to increase as the pressure gradient tightens, resulting in strong winds across the Mid-South tomorrow. Moistening associated with this strong low-level southerly flow will also eventually contribute to an unstable atmosphere with mean MUCAPE values from the HREF grand ensemble coming in on the order of nearly 500-1000 J/kg. This instability will be coupled with 30-35 knots of effective shear, which should support storm organization and longevity. Several CAMs depict a line of prefrontal showers and thunderstorms that will enter the Mid-South on sometime tomorrow evening, lasting through the late evening/overnight hours. It appears that the the greatest threat for strong/severe storms should be along and west of the Mississippi River, though a stronger storm east of the Mississippi River could also occur. While the main threats are expected to be damaging winds and large hail, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out at this time. Another concern pertains to precipitable water values, associated with this activity, increasing to around 1.6 inches. This value exceeds the 90th percentile value for the date, which may also promote a risk for heavy rainfall. The Mid- South remains in a slight risk for excessive rainfall for both tomorrow and Monday. The front looks to approach the Mid-South by Tuesday morning, but does not completely move through the Mid-South as upper-level forcing pivots away from the region. The remainder of the forecast will feature warm and wet conditions, as several mid-level disturbances parse mostly zonal flow aloft. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1136 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 LLWS (Southerly 180-190 at 40-50kt) will impact all TAF sites tonight but subside tomorrow. Gradient winds tonight into tomorrow night will remain southerly 15-20kts with occasional gusts approaching 30kts. A line of weakening showers/thunderstorms should approach MEM, MKL and JBR around midnight. Included PROB30 for thunderstorms at MEM and JBR with only VCTS at MKL. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JPR AVIATION...JDS