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000
FXUS62 KMFL 141842
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
242 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1244 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

South Florida currently sits between a mid level trough offshore in
the western Atlantic and a building mid level ridge over the Gulf of
Mexico. This will allow for the mid to upper level wind flow to
remain northwesterly through tonight and into Monday. At the
surface, a large area of high pressure will continue to gradually
shift eastward into the Atlantic. This will create an easterly wind
flow across the region during this time frame. With the
northwesterly flow aloft, the dry air mass will remain parked over
South Florida heading into Monday. Some moisture advection will
continue to take place in the lower levels along the easterly wind
flow which will allow for a just a slight uptick in humidity levels
compared to the past several days. Low temperatures tonight will
generally range from the upper 50s across the Lake Okeechobee region
to the mid to upper 60s across the east coast metro areas. Highs on
Monday will rise into the lower 80s across the east coast metro
areas and into the mid to upper 80s across Southwest Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

The week kicks off with dry air and surface high pressure over the
region. A warming trend will continue through the week as the
atmosphere moistens and the high pressure erodes. A weak surface
front will enter northern Florida Wednesday into Thursday though
the associated surface low and the support aloft will remain north
of the region with the spread of the latest solutions.
Accordingly, the front will weaken before reaching Central Florida
late Thursday but another perturbation could bring some additional
potential for convective activity to northern portions of the
state on Friday into Saturday. For right now, the best support for
convection may stay north but the potential for the warming
temperatures (with some places reaching into the lower 90s) and
sea breeze boundaries could permit some potential for showers and
possibly thunderstorms to sneak back into the forecast by the end
of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Easterly
wind flow will range between 10 and 15 kts this afternoon across
the east coast terminals. These winds will become light and
variable as this evening progresses. At KAPF, winds will become
west southwest late this afternoon as a Gulf breeze pushes inland.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1244 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

A moderate to fresh easterly wind flow will continue into the early
portion of the week across the local waters. These winds may
increase heading towards the middle of the week which could result
in a period of hazardous marine conditions mainly over the Atlantic
waters during this time frame. Seas across the Atlantic waters will
range between 2 and 4 feet through the early portion of the week
while the Gulf seas remain at 2 feet or less.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1244 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

A moderate risk of rip currents will remain in place through the
early portion of the week across the Atlantic Coast beaches. As
onshore flow increases towards the middle of the week, the rip
current risk over the Atlantic Coast beaches could become high
during this time frame.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1244 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

High pressure continues to bring a dry air mass to the region this
afternoon and into Monday. Minimum relative humidity values this
afternoon will range between 30 and 35 percent across Southwest
Florida. While easterly wind flow will continue into early next
week, there will be a slight uptick in relative humidity values on
Monday. However, they may drop to near 35 percent across interior
portions of Southwest Florida in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            67  83  69  82 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     63  82  65  83 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        66  82  67  83 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        65  80  68  82 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  67  81  69  81 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  67  81  69  81 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   66  82  67  84 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  64  81  66  81 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       66  80  68  82 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           63  85  64  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...CWC