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000
FXUS63 KMKX 142006
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
306 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions today

- Above normal temps expected to continue into early next week

- Severe thunderstorm potential decreasing Tuesday as system
  slows down and delays the onset of precipitation

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Tonight through Monday night:

As high pressure builds in from the west and moves overhead
tonight. Dry weather is expected to continue across southern
Wisconsin. Elevated fire weather concerns will continue through
across the northwestern portions of our forecast area through
this evening. For additional details on the elevated Fire
weather look for the Fire Weather section below. Winds will
become light and variable through Monday morning until the high
pressure begins to exit heading toward the New England States.

While clear skies are expected to persist Monday, temperatures
will be a bit cooler than today. Lakeshore areas will be kept
cooler do to the northeast to east wind. Overall southern
Wisconsin will be a bit cooler due to the light winds, decreased
mixing and lack of any WAA. While cooler than today,
temperatures are still expected to top out in the mid 60s to low
70s.

Patterson

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Monday night through Sunday:

The low pressure system over the central Plains early this
week has continued to slow down its progression northeastward.
This has resulting in delayed onset of rain/storms for Tuesday.
As this low tracks toward the Great Lakes Region the associated
sfc warm front will initially kick off the rainfall. With a
further delay on the onset, Tuesday morning looks to be the
earliest this could begin with a few guidance runs suggesting
parts of the area may not see rain until Tuesday afternoon. It
is still looking likely(roughly 80% chance) that the line of
storms along the warm front will have a few thunderstorms
embedded within however, the window for severe weather is
decreasing as this system continues to slow down.

While rain chances remain high Tuesday and Wednesday due to the
increasing moisture and good lift (both from upper level PVA,
LLJ and WAA). As the system onset becomes delayed the likelihood
of getting a period of time for the atmosphere to recover and
become more unstable with warmer conditions is decreasing. The
uncertainty now is becoming how much instability could we
muster behind the warm front if it can efficient lift north.
The lake will likely play a roll as well as the predominately
easterly winds expected during this time will likely (80% or
more) impact temperatures and instability near the surface.

Heading into Thursday this system will begin to pull out of the
Great Lakes Region trekking northeast. Some rain showers could
linger as a wave of upper level PVA rolls through. There will
still be some good mid level moisture present across southern
Wisconsin during the time, which could lead to some isolated to
scattered showers. For the weekend, high pressure will return
bringing with it a cooler air mass. While dry conditions are
anticipated, temperatures will likely remain in the 50s for the
weekend.

Patterson

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period. The
mostly clear skies will remain across southern Wisconsin through
Monday. Breezy northwest winds this afternoon with gusts to
around 20 kts for inland areas will persist until tonight. Along
the lake shore a lake breeze has moved inland effecting
terminals within a couple miles of the lake. The breezy winds
has kept the westward progression slow, but as the winds
weaken late this afternoon/evening this lake breeze could
continue inland again. Heading into tonight winds will weaken
becoming light and variable as high pressure moves overhead.
Monday the high pressure will exit the state and low pressure
from the central Plains will gradually begin its approach
causing winds to shift to northeasterly. Winds will likely
become easterly along the lakeshore as a lake breeze moves
inland Monday afternoon.

Patterson

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

High pressure is building in across the western Great Lakes
Region today. Breezy northwest winds this afternoon/evening will
become light and variable overnight as the high pressure moves
overhead. Monday afternoon winds will become east to northeasterly
as high pressure continues eastward and the next system in the
central plains advances northeast.

Gusty southerly winds are expected to return by Tuesday over the
open waters with gales becoming more likely Tuesday into
Wednesday. Some thunderstorms are possible across largely the
southern portion of the lake during this period.

Patterson

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected into this
evening. Breezy northwest winds with gusts of 15 to 22 mph will
continue until high pressure moves overhead tonight. Mixing
heights around 6000-8000 feet by mid afternoon. As we reach the
high temperatures of the day, there has been a slight increase
across much of the area with many locations reaching 80 degrees.
That combined with the low dewpoints has brought RH values in
the low 20s across much of southern Wisconsin. The FFMC fuel
moisture values are forecast to be around 90 to 91 for south
central WI, with the highest values concentrated toward central
WI where drought conditions persist. The SPS in collaboration
with neighboring offices remains in effect through this evening
for areas where the fuels were driest since weather conditions
are right at that marginal threshold for elevated levels.

Patterson

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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