Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 280258
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
958 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind chills tonight will be in the teens, with a lingering
  westerly breeze.

- Above normal temperatures may return this weekend, along with
  a more active weather pattern into early next week. A few
  thunderstorms may occur Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1000 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

With the shutoff of diurnal heating, the cumulus clouds have
dissipated and left skies mosly clear as expected. Thus, the
forecast for lows in the low to mid 20s and wind chills in the
teens tonight remains on track.

Sheppard

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 335 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Tonight through Thursday night:

Westerly winds have developed a southwesterly component
immediately downwind of the Kettle Moraine. Gusts of 25 to 30
mph will continue into this evening as low pressure over Ontario
continues to lift northward. Highs in the upper 30s to near 40
degrees are on track. Partly cloudy skies are expected today,
clearing tonight as drier air moves in aloft. Meanwhile, slight
CAA continues and brings lows in the lower 20s. Wind chills in
the teens are expected.

Low pressure will continue to rotate around northern Ontario
and the Hudson Bay through Thursday, leading to continued
westerly to southwesterly winds. Clear skies remain through
Thursday, with consistent westerly winds and a deep mixed layer
(between 3500 and 4000 ft) leading to relative humidity values
dropping as low as 25 percent in southwestern Wisconsin and
between 30 and 40 percent elsewhere. Relative humidity values
may fall farther than currently forecast if mixing brings drier
air to the surface. Wind gusts of 15 to 20 mph and highs only in
the 40s will keep fire weather from nearing critical values.

High pressure becomes dominant across southern Wisconsin
Thursday night and brings light and variable winds. Clear skies
remain through Thursday night, allowing temperatures to cool
into the lower 20s in central Wisconsin and into the upper 20s
in far southern Wisconsin. Dry air lingering at the surface will
prevent any fog concerns Thursday night.

MH

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 335 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Friday through Wednesday:

A baroclinic zone will be draped from the central plains to eastern
U.S. providing the focus for moisture to impact southern Wisconsin.
The first round of precipitation is expected Friday night into
Saturday morning as low pressure moves across northern Illinois
along this boundary. This should be mainly rain with maybe some wet
flakes mixed in toward central Wisconsin. The low level jet brings a
good surge of moisture with PW values around 0.8, which is the 90th
percentile. A few rumbles of thunder are possible with up to 100
J/kg of MU Cape. There is better instability just to the south of
the state line.

There will likely be a lull in activity on Saturday as mid level
ridge and an inverted trough pushes in.

Another low will ride the baroclinic zone Sunday night and Monday.
There are timing differences with the low moving through with some
of the GFS members showing a slower scenario. Showers are expected
starting at times from later Sunday through early Tuesday as
moisture overruns this boundary. Some snow is possible Monday night
into Tuesday but there is still uncertainty this far out with low
temperatures. Kept the thunder mention out of the forecast with this
low tracking more across central Illinois, limiting the
instability in our area.

The upper trough axis will move through late Tuesday bringing a push
of drier air and an end to the showers.

Marquardt

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1000 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

The daytime cumulus clouds have largely cleared out with the
shutoff of solar heating, and the lingering scattered to broken
clouds in central WI are at roughly 4000 ft altitude. Thus, VFR
conditions are expected tonight into Thursday with dry weather.
Light west winds continue tonight, accelerating from sunrise to
Thursday afternoon, then becoming light and variable Thursday
night as high pressure builds in.

Sheppard

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 335 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Low pressure over northwestern Ontario will continue to lift
northward into the Hudson Bay tonight, leading to southwest
winds slowly diminishing across the lake from south to north
tonight through Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in
effect into this evening. Thursday afternoon, high pressure will
build into Lake Michigan and allow for winds to become light and
variable Thursday night through Friday. An area of low pressure
approaches the area Friday night, leading to winds shifting to
easterly before shifting northwesterly as the low sinks into the
Ohio Valley on Saturday.

MH

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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