232
FXUS64 KMOB 052058
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
358 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across inland
areas through late this afternoon then fade away after sunset.
Another round of low clouds and patchy fog is possible tonight
which will clear around daybreak on Monday. A weak shortwave will
pass to our northwest on Monday, providing enough lift for more
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The highest
coverage will be northwest of I-65 where the greater lift will be.
Outside of isolated to scattered convection, it will remain warm
with highs on Monday in the mid and upper 80s inland to low to mid
80s along the coast. Lows tonight will fall into the mid and
upper 60s inland to low 70s along the coast. /13



&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Weak upper level ridging will begin to build into the Gulf Coast
on Tuesday while a persistent onshore flow continues to advect
moisture into the region. This pattern will result in another
round of isolated to scattered showers and storms mainly for
interior areas on Tuesday. Any convection that develops should
generally follow a diurnal pattern with activity tapering off
through the evening. By Wednesday, the upper level ridging becomes
more defined and the associated subsidence will keep conditions
dry through the day. Temperatures will be on the rise through the
middle of the week with highs reaching into the middle and upper
80s on Tuesday and the upper 80s and lower 90s on Wednesday
afternoon. These temperatures combined with the humid conditions
will allow heat index values to rise into the 93-98 degree range
on Wednesday so it will feel even warmer than the ambient
temperature. Overnight lows will also be rather warm. Lows Monday
night will fall into the upper 60s and lower 70s with temperatures
lingering in the lower 70s for most locations on Tuesday and
Wednesday nights. /14


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)

The pattern will begin to change towards the end of the week as a
late season cold front approaches and moves into the region.
Upper level ridging quickly slides east on Thursday as a longwave
trough pushes out of the North Central states and swings over the
eastern US on Friday. This will result in zonal flow with a few
embedded impulses becoming more northwesterly as the base of the
trough moves over the Southeast on Friday. Down at the surface, a
low pressure will lift northeastward across the Midwest and into
the Great Lakes region with it`s associated cold front expected to
push through the area Thursday night into Friday. Current
guidance has trended a bit faster with the overall progression of
this system, but there is still quite a bit of uncertainty. The
better forcing is expected to remain to our north, but given that
there will be plenty of instability and increasing shear across
the area, we could see a few strong to perhaps severe storms
during the Thursday evening into Friday timeframe with gusty
winds and hail being the main concerns. Drier and cooler
conditions are anticipated Friday night behind the front. As we
head into the weekend, the deterministic guidance begins to
diverge with regards to the location frontal boundary and
lingering rain chances. For now, have maintained mostly dry
forecast through the weekend. Temperatures will also be notably
cooler with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s and lows in the
50s and lower 60s. /14



&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 358 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and
seas possible near thunderstorms. /13



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      69  85  71  86  72  88  73  88 /  10  10   0  10   0   0   0  20
Pensacola   71  83  72  84  73  85  75  85 /   0  10   0  10   0   0   0  20
Destin      71  81  73  82  74  83  76  84 /   0  10   0  10   0   0   0  10
Evergreen   67  88  67  89  69  90  71  90 /  10  20   0  20   0  10   0  40
Waynesboro  67  89  68  89  70  92  71  90 /  10  30   0  30   0   0  10  40
Camden      66  87  67  89  70  91  70  88 /  30  20   0  30   0  10  10  50
Crestview   65  88  67  87  68  89  70  89 /   0  10   0  10   0   0   0  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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