Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 282326
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
626 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance of light wintry precipitation Friday.

- Patchy fog likely overnight, primarily across east-central
  Minnesota & west-central Wisconsin.

- Best chance for precipitation Sunday into Monday still looking
  like southern Minnesota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

As expected, temperatures have remained capped close to freezing
over the snowpack this afternoon despite the strong late-March
sunshine. Meanwhile, temperatures have reached the 40s across
portions of south-central MN where no snowpack was left after
Monday`s rain & melting. Dewpoints are very dry right now, but
expect some snowmelt this afternoon is expected to create a
shallow layer of low- level moisture as the boundary layer
cools after sunset. As a result, patchy fog is likely overnight
into tomorrow morning across rural areas of central Minnesota &
west-central Wisconsin - where winds will be calm and skies are
expected to remain clear overnight.

Warm-air advection and increasing cloud cover begins tonight
across western Minnesota, ahead of an approaching surface low
out of the Dakotas. There is a slight chance that enough
forcing is generated by the low-level warm advection overnight
to generate patchy drizzle over the higher elevations along the
Buffalo Ridge- which would could freeze onto roads & surfaces
given the cold surface temperatures through tomorrow morning.
Otherwise, any measurable precipitation is expected to hold off
until Friday afternoon & evening as better forcing arrives with
the low. Temperatures will be cool enough for a during of light
snow across portions of central Minnesota, & northwest
Wisconsin but elsewhere could see a few hundredths of an inch
of light rain. Patchy freezing drizzle can`t also be ruled out
at times where temperatures are also cold enough for snow to
fall. temperatures will vary widely across the area Friday,
staying in the mid 30s across west-central Minnesota under
widespread cloud cover & the best chances for precipitation.
meanwhile, afternoon temperatures could research 50 across
southern Minnesota & west-central Wisconsin as southerly flow
increases in the warm sector of the surface low.

Temperatures remain warm over the weekend with highs generally
in the mid to upper 30s across western Minnesota and mid to upper
40s elsewhere. There remains a high amount of spread in the
precipition chances for the system still expected to move
through the mid-Mississippi valley during the Sunday-Monday
timeframe. Deterministic models continue to keep the surface low
well to the south of the area, near the IA/MO border, which
keeps any precipitation out of the area expect for possibly far-
southern Minnesota. Meanwhile, ensemble solutions have more of
a northerly extent to the precipitation shield, despite also
showing signal that keeps the surface low south of the area.
Chances for at least some precipitation do look fairly high
across far-southern Minnesota, but we`ll have to keep the
generic ~30% PoPs going elsewhere across the area until more
consistency among solutions is evident. Temperatures look cold
enough for accumulating snow if the precipitation moves through
during the cooler nighttime hours Sunday & Monday night, but
otherwise would fall as rain during the day.

Generally warmer & quieter weather is expected through the rest
of next week as upper level ridging begins building back into
the central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

High clouds are the name of the game to start the period, with
the trend being lowering and cigs developing towards period`s
end. One of the big questions regarding the current TAF is fog
potential tonight, with CAM forecast soundings fairly split in
terms of low level moisture. Fog appears most likely for
AXN/STC, however confidence is not 100% so went with TEMPO
groups which may end up being too persistent. Winds will
gradually shift eastwards with speeds increasing to 10-15kts
after 18z. -RA chances generally wait until after the period
ends, thus expect inclusion in the 06/12z upcoming TAF periods.

KMSP...Low confidence in fog potential tonight so kept it absent
for now with low level moisture the main question as winds will
be relatively weak. As of around 6pm we have a 24 degree
Fahrenheit dew point depression, so we are going to have to see
temperatures drop to the teens to really see fog with the
current forecast being around 20.

Other than fog, added in a prob30 for rain chances for the last
6 hours of the period, with future TAFs further honing on the
timing and strength.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...Chc MVFR early, then VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts.
SUN...Chc MVFR/-RA. Wind N to NE 10G20kts.
MON...Chc MVFR/IFR/-RA. Wind NE 10-15G20-25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...TDH


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