718
FXUS66 KMTR 061737
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1037 AM PDT Mon May 6 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1220 AM PDT Mon May 6 2024

Despite the chilly start to the day, a warming trend will lead to
above normal temperatures by Thursday. Once the warm weather
arrives, it should be pretty persistent through mid month.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1220 AM PDT Mon May 6 2024

The satellite image is pretty clear tonight, with just a few
pockets of orographic clouds in the mountains. These clear skies
will allow enhanced radiational cooling before the sun comes up.
Expect inland temperatures to drop into the low 40s with a few
pockets of upper 30s. Mostly clear skies will prevail through the
morning, allowing temperatures to recover quickly after sunrise.
A weak disturbance will bring some cloud cover and moderate NW
winds back this afternoon and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1220 AM PDT Mon May 6 2024

A upper level ridge will set up camp this week, keeping warm and
dry weather in the forecast for the foreseeable future. Thursday
and Friday look like the warmest days of the week, with coastal
highs in the upper 60s and inland highs in the mid-80s. There is
a minor HeatRisk for inland areas beginning Wednesday and
persisting through the forecast period. This will cause concern
for individuals who are extremely sensitive to heat, especially
when outdoors without effective means of cooling or adequate
hydration. With the sharp change from the cool temperatures this
weekend, this week may catch some folks offguard.

An inland ridge will cause offshore flow to develop mid week,
decreasing the relative humidity into the 20-40% range. The
strongest winds will be in the Vaca Range of Napa County, with
gusts up to gale force Wed night-Thu morning. With fuel moisture
still above average, this shouldn`t be a major fire weather
concern, but will act to dry things out as the fire season
approaches.

The Climate Prediction Center forecast shows above normal
temperatures are likely for the next 2 weeks which will likely
trigger the typical summer pattern of coastal stratus after the
offshore wind event ends this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1037 AM PDT Mon May 6 2024

VFR at all stations except MRY and, potentially, SNS where stratus
is set to return overnight. HREF guidance shows stratus extending
inland on the Central Coast and into portions of the Bay Area.
Guidance was split on how far stratus would be transported inland
with some MVFR potential at SJC, SFO, and OAK overnight depending on
inland progression. Moderate to at times gusty W to NW winds through
this afternoon with winds gradually becoming more northerly over the
TAF period.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Guidance was split on
MVFR CIG development but a few indicated a short period of MVFR
conditions between 05-10Z. Confidence remains low so did not go full
out in the TAFs yet. Any CIGs that do develop look to scatter out
after 10Z with VFR expected afterwards. Moderate W to NW winds will
become more northerly throughout the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR transitioning to MVFR. Moderate
confidence that stratus will move inland along the Central Coast
with MVFR CIGs expected at MRY and borderline MVFR/VFR CIGs at SNS.
Guidance was split on if MVFR CIGs would develop at SNS but if MVFR
CIGs do develop 09-15Z will be the most likely timeframe. Moderate W
winds this afternoon will weaken overnight to light to moderate.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1037 AM PDT Mon May 6 2024

Fair weather and moderate west to northwesterly winds will
prevail today. Northerly winds will strengthen increase overnight
as surface high pressure builds and moves into the Pacific
Northwest. Near gale force sustained winds and gale force gusts
increase in likelihood and area coverage Tuesday and Wednesday.
Guidance indicates the strongest winds will be across the northern
coastal outer waters with high end gale force gusts currently
expected. Gale watches have been issued along the Big Sur  coast
and outer coastal waters for Tuesday night into Wednesday  night.
During this same time frame, significant wave heights will  begin
to build to heights of up to 15 feet. As such, conditions  will be
extremely hazardous for all but the largest vessels  Tuesday and
Wednesday and extreme caution should be exercised  during this
time.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Watch from late tonight through late Tuesday night for Pt
     Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night for
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Flynn
LONG TERM....Flynn
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy

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