Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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FXUS66 KMTR 242057
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
157 PM PDT Sun Mar 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1223 AM PDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Unsettled weather continues through this afternoon with rain
showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm. A bit drier for
Monday into Tuesday before rain chances return for mid week into
the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 122 PM PDT Sun Mar 24 2024

A few scattered showers linger this afternoon, but compared to
this morning coverage has decreased. This trend will continue
through the rest of the afternoon/early evening with lingering
showers south of Santa Cruz.

Otherwise, an upstream upper level ridge will gradually build over
the region Sunday night through Monday. The building ridge will
lead to drier weather with slightly warmer temperatures to start
the work week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 150 PM PDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Upper level ridging will keep dry weather in place through at
least Tuesday.

Rain returns to the forecast early Wednesday as a weak cold front
moves through the region. Rain initially develops over the North
Bay early Wednesday before spreading S and E through the day.
Rain showers will linger through Thursday in a post frontal
regime. Still looking like another round of beneficial rain for
the region. Good to see before the "dry season" returns in another
month or two.

Reinvigorated rain chances return Friday into next weekend as an
more potent low pressure system takes aim at CA. Interesting to
note pretty decent agreement on WPC clusters and ensembles with
the evolution of the late week pattern, but details split on
placement of highest rainfall totals. Some of the guidance favors
a wetter NorCal/Central Coast scenario and others favor Central
Coast/SoCal scenario. We`ll have to see how it plays out, but for
now decent confidence (40-50%) for 1-2" for coastal mountains and
0.25-0.75" elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1052 AM PDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Scattered showers continue to move through the region through the
first half of the TAF period, bringing at times moderate rainfall to
terminals. Isolated thunderstorms are still a possibility this
morning, though chances diminish into the early afternoon of Sunday.
Winds are likely to be the biggest impact, as gusty northwesterly
winds up to around 20-25 knots generally impact terminals through
the evening of Sunday. Although gusts diminish into the overnight
hours of Sunday into Monday, winds remain somewhat elevated for most
terminals at around 10-12 knots. Most terminals will see VFR
conditions lasting through the TAF period, though Monterey Bay
may see lowered CIGs and MVFR conditions in the early morning of
Monday. However, confidence on this is low-moderate. Although
models at this time do not hint at a return of fog to KSTS
terminal, ample clearing of high clouds and residual moisture from
recent rainfall may lend to fog development Monday morning. At
this time, have kept KSTS VFR though this will be something to
keep an eye on.


Vicinity of SFO...Scattered shower chances last through the
afternoon, though quickly abate beyond about noon. Highest
confidence is in VFR conditions lasting through the TAF period,
though a few low clouds may form over the terminal in the morning of
Monday. Winds will be the largest concern today with gusts up to
around 30 knots out of the northwest, peaking in the late afternoon
today. Towards sunset, some directional wind shear develops over the
terminal as gusts begin to ease into the night to become breezy.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Showers will continue to intermittently
impact the terminal today through the early afternoon, at times
bringing reductions in visibility. However, conditions should
largely remain VFR through the evening today. Winds out of the NW
and gusting to around 20 knots this afternoon. In the early morning
of Monday, MVFR CIGs develop and last just beyond sunrise. Though,
there is disagreement amongst models as to CIG development
whatsoever. At this time, moderate confidence in MVFR CIGs
developing in the early morning of Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1052 AM PDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Scattered rain showers continue through the late morning today,
becoming more sparse into the late afternoon. Still cannot rule
out the chance for an isolated thunderstorm or two, though best
chances for any formation of thunderstorms continue to be in the
morning hours today. Fresh and gusty northwesterly winds continue,
leading to hazardous conditions for small craft. Come the early
morning of Monday, and winds ease to become more moderate out of
the northwest. Larger northwest swell abates through the day of
Monday, with a new and longer period northwest swell arriving
behind it.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Monday for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AC

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