Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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778 FXUS66 KMTR 300513 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1013 PM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1202 AM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024 High pressure brings quiet weather and slowly warming temperatures this week. Breezy onshore winds will keep temperatures along the coast cooler however. Cooler and more unsettled conditions return for next weekend into next week with light rain chances in the forecast. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 203 PM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Eastward moving high pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean is allowing for the pressure gradient to tighten, leading to strong and gusty northwesterly winds of 30-40 mph, especially along the immediate coastline and higher peaks. The primary impact from these strong and gusty northwesterly winds are for mariners as Gale Warnings and Small Craft Advisories are in effect until at least 3 AM Tuesday for all marine zones. High pressure is also allowing for a warming trend to take place with interior locations reaching the 70s while the coast will be kept cool in the upper 50s due to the persistent northwesterly wind. Skies will remain clear overnight with lows in the 40s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 203 PM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024 A subtle ridge will be present over California through Friday, allowing for clear skies and warm weather. While we continue to be below Wind Advisory criteria, northwesterly winds will continue to be strong and gusty, with elevations above 2,500 feet expected to see gusts in the 40-50 mph range. Thursday will be the warmest day of the week with the coast reaching the upper 60s and interior locations reaching 80 degrees as the pressure gradient is allowed to relax and winds begin to diminish. HeatRisk does reach minor criteria on Thursday, so ensure to stay adequately hydrated and apply sunscreen! By Saturday, the pattern changes as an upper-level low approaches the Pacific Northwest and its associated weak cold front drops into California. There is uncertainty in location and strength of the low, but the latest forecast update has extended Probability of Precipitation chances further south. The rain is forecast to be light and unimpactful with higher elevations reaching up to a quarter of an inch. This trend of cooler and wetter weather is set to continue into the first full week of May. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1012 PM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Generally VFR through the TAF period with patchy stratus in the higher elevations. Light to moderate onshore winds tonight will build through Tuesday, but not expecting gusts as intense as those seen earlier today. Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning should largely remain VFR throughout the region. Vicinity of SFO... VFR through the TAF period. Breezy west-northwest winds will gradually diminish overnight before resuming on Tuesday. As of now, winds expected to gust up to 30 knots on Tuesday afternoon and evening. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... Low confidence (20-30% probability) that a patch of MVFR stratus forming over the northern Santa Lucias impacts MRY Tuesday morning, and again late Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Otherwise, generally VFR through the region with breezy onshore flow developing Tuesday afternoon and evening. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1012 PM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024 A strong northerly pressure gradient will continue producing hazardous conditions due to gale force wind gusts through mid- week. Gale force wind gusts of 40 to 45 knots will be possible over the outer waters and portions of the immediate coast near Point Reyes and Point Sur. The strong winds will result in fresh steep wind waves with heights reaching 10 to 12 feet. Conditions will gradually improve late in the week into next week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Mry Bay. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sarment LONG TERM....Sarment AVIATION...DialH MARINE...SO Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea