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000
FXUS64 KOHX 220512
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1212 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 747 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

A few mid-level clouds from late this afternoon are starting to
clear out of the area and this will leave us with the first thing
necessary for some good radiational cooling: clear skies. The
second part is going to be the winds. It`s still a little breezy
out there but expectations are for winds to relax to less than 5
kts over the next couple of hours -- and then, we can really start
the cooling necessary for our Frost Advisory to be worth it. If
you haven`t done so, get those sensitive plants covered. Most
everyone will have frost in the morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

The light showers that have been effecting our southern counties
are pushing out and we are seeing cold air advection build over
the region. This is bringing clearing skies and we should see a
sunny afternoon. Highs will remain on the chilly side again today
pushing into the lower 60s. Overnight will bring clear skies and
light winds. This will cool us into the 30s and frost is likely
across the area by daybreak. A Frost Advisory has been posted for
all of Middle TN.

Upper level ridge builds in from the West early this week and that
will bring great weather with the start of a warming trend. Highs
will be about 5 degrees warmer tomorrow pushing into the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

We will see another cool night Monday night but should be a bit
warmer than tonight and frost is unlikely. Upper level ridge will
push east on Tuesday as a trough digs into the Great Lakes. This
will push a weak cold front into our area later Tuesday into early
Wednesday and may bring a few light spotty showers. The front
will have little effect on temperatures with highs in the 70s.
Upper level ridging builds in behind the trough and will bring
quiet weather for much of the remainder of the week with
continued warming temperatures. We should see them push back to
near 80 by the end of the week.

Things will start to become a bit more unsettled late week into
the weekend as long wave troughing sets up over the West. This
will push short waves into the Plains and with southwest flow we
will see deep Gulf moisture build back north. Ensembles disagree
with exact timing and placement of the short waves but do agree on
keeping the forcing to our northwest with us sitting on the
western edge of the upper level ridge. With dew points pushing
into the 60s we will see CAPE build in over the area. This will
result in thunderstorm chances returning to the forecast but
widespread convection isn`t expected through the weekend. Highs
will be warming well into the 80s also.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Northerly winds
will generally be light, becoming southerly or even variable after
18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      67  44  74  55 /   0   0   0  30
Clarksville    65  43  72  53 /   0   0  10  40
Crossville     61  38  69  49 /   0   0   0  30
Columbia       66  41  73  52 /   0   0   0  20
Cookeville     62  41  69  52 /   0   0   0  30
Jamestown      61  39  69  50 /   0   0   0  40
Lawrenceburg   65  41  72  52 /   0   0   0  20
Murfreesboro   66  39  74  53 /   0   0   0  30
Waverly        66  44  72  54 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-
Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-
Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-
Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van
Buren-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......Unger
SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Clements