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000
FXUS64 KOHX 121716
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1216 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tonight)
Issued at 1119 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Very gusty winds across the midstate this morning due to a tight
pressure gradient on the southwest side of a deep 975mb surface
low over southern Canada. Gusts up to 40 mph will remain possible
into the afternoon until the low moves far enough away and the
pressure gradient relaxes enough to reduce the winds. Radar also
indicates showers have broken out across our east up into
southern Kentucky, with some small hail reported in a few of the
stronger showers. A few lightning strikes are also expected due
to the very cold temperatures aloft of around -23C at 500mb. All
of this activity will continue into the afternoon before
diminishing by early evening as the low continues shifting
eastward along with the loss of daytime heating. Another cool
night is anticipated tonight due to the strong CAA underway, with
lows dropping into the 40s areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Friday)
Issued at 1119 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

After tonight, a big warmup is in store for Middle Tennessee as
an upper ridge builds over the western Gulf Coast into the
Tennessee Valley. Highs will warm into the 70s on Saturday and
into the 80s by Sunday, with 80s expected each day next week for
much of the midstate through Thursday. Lows will also warm
significantly with 50s/60s anticipated areawide. Latest guidance
continue to show an intense upper low moving out into the Plains
on Monday then slowly shifting eastward into the Tennessee Valley
by late Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will bring our next
chance for showers and thunderstorms, with high chance to likely
pops for midweek. In addition, even though it`s still 5 days away,
forecast soundings already appear quite favorable for strong to
severe thunderstorm potential. However, with the main upper low
and associated jet dynamics lifting away from Middle Tennessee,
it`s unclear if this threat will materialize. We will have to
keep an eye on this potential the next several days. GFS/ECMWF
then show the main cold front with this system moving through on
Thursday with another round of showers and storms anticipated,
some of which could also be strong. Current indications are for a
big cooldown behind this front, with lows back down into the 40s
and highs only in the 60s for the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions expected this cycle. A tight surface gradient is
causing winds to gust 25-35 kts at all terminals. These winds
should relax after sunset tonight and remain out of the west. A
field of cumulus clouds currently clips the northern half of the
area. SKC conditions are expected to return after 00Z tonight.
Some light showers are possible at SRB and CSV this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      47  76  58  81 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    44  75  59  80 /   0   0  10  10
Crossville     41  67  51  75 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       43  77  57  81 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     42  69  54  77 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      41  67  51  76 /  10   0   0  10
Lawrenceburg   44  75  56  80 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   43  76  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        43  77  60  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION.....Baggett