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000
FXUS64 KOHX 121115
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
615 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 147 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

The last few sprigs of rain from yesterday`s system are exiting the
Plateau at forecast time. Clouds remain across a good chunk of the
area east of I-65 and though some of those will clear out over the
next few hours, it looks like this area isn`t quite done with the
rain and storms. While it has looked like we`d be done for several
days starting right now, several models are suggesting one more
round of storms for the Cumberland Plateau today as an additional
impulse swings around the west side of yesterday`s upper low
pressure system. Solutions vary from a few more sprigs of showers
(HRRR) to clusters of thunderstorms (HREF and others). After looking
at forecast soundings, I`m going to lean towards the latter and if
that`s the case, air aloft is pretty cold. Wind fields are such that
I`m not worried about severe winds, but if we`re able to get a few
thunderstorms late this morning and into the afternoon hours, some
small hail is very possible with mid-level lapse rates running at
7.0 deg/km or better. Again, this activity should be limited to
areas east of I-65. On top of this, winds are going to be gusty
again today. I don`t see anything that suggests we need a Wind
Advisory, but gusts of 30-35 mph will be common again today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 147 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

We`ll finally start to dry out tonight and we`ve got a great weekend
ahead. I do have to mention one thing regarding the weekend -- with
the region in northwest flow aloft, and some moisture around, a few
models are suggesting weak impulses aloft could wring out a shower
or two on Sunday. I`m not buying into it at this time, but at a
minimum, there could be more cloud cover around. Will this affect
temperatures getting into the low 80s? Probably not. There`s a
pretty solid southwest boundary layer flow, so we`ll maintain these
forecast temps.

It looks like we`ll have two shots at storms next week. The first is
Tuesday night. At first glance, this looks like general thunder at
best with the upper low and most of the energy north of Middle TN.
However, forecast soundings are interesting. Yes, most of the area
is capped and it`s at night (or first thing Wednesday morning) so
the likelihood of severe weather is pretty low, but let`s see how
this one evolves.

The second chance for storms looks to be Thursday afternoon. This
one is a long way off, but instability is better (north of 1000
J/Kg), there`s quite a bit of shear and this one actually has a
frontal passage, where Tuesday doesn`t. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Gusty west northwest winds will develop area-wide by 15Z and will
continue until 00Z. Gusts around 25KT will be frequent and there
will be a few gusts near 35KT. VFR conditions are expected
throughout the day, except for brief lowering at CSV/SRB where
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur. These
thunderstorms could come with localized 40KT wind gusts and small
hail. Around 13/00Z, clear skies and diminishing winds will
develop.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      66  46  77  59 /  10   0   0   0
Clarksville    65  44  75  59 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     57  41  67  51 /  50   0   0   0
Columbia       66  44  77  57 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     59  42  70  54 /  40   0   0   0
Jamestown      57  41  67  51 /  50   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   65  44  76  56 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   66  43  76  56 /  10   0   0   0
Waverly        66  44  77  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....13