804
FXUS63 KPAH 280753
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
253 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will begin to approach the region tonight
  bringing numerous showers and thunderstorms through Monday.
  There is a conditional risk for a few strong to severe storms
  this evening, mainly in SEMO. Damaging winds and a isolated
  tornado would be the main concern, but confidence is not the
  greatest. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated across
  the rest of the region.

- Heavy rainfall is possible tonight with locally 1 to 2 inches
  of rainfall mainly in SEMO. Isolated flash flooding is
  possible.

- Wind gusts between 25-35 mph are expected today with strong
  southerly flow.

- Tuesday through Thursday will be unseasonably warm with high
  temperatures back in the 80s. More shower and thunderstorm
  chances are likely by Thursday and Friday as another cold
  front approaches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A mid level shortwave will eject across the Plains today as a low
pressure system lifts north across Iowa through this evening. A
trailing cold front will slowly traverse towards the FA tonight
through Monday with numerous showers and thunderstorms. In the wake
of the first round of convection this evening, most of the day will
be dry as model soundings show a cap between 850-800 mb. Leaned
closer to the NBM 50th percentile for maxTs today as the NBM
probabilities of exceeding 83-85 degrees are quite high across most
of the FA with increasing breaks of sun. Given inverted-v model
soundings and strong southerly flow, would expect temps to
overachieve a bit today. Conditions will also be breezy with wind
gusts between 25-35 mph due to the pressure gradient.

As the right entrance region of a 50+ kt jet max at 500 mb
approaches Sunday evening combined with PVA, forcing for ascent will
lead to increasing 300 mb divergence as the CAMs show a QLCS
approaching from the west. Initially, there will be a conditional
risk for a few strong to severe storms in SEMO where a narrow axis
of higher dewpoints in the mid 60s and MLCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg is
progged. However, there is uncertainty if an ongoing MCS over south
central Missouri will be sfc based by the time they reach our FA.
The 0z HRRR model soundings show a cap just above the sfc that would
mean elevated storms and inhibit the severe risk. To a lesser
extent, the RAP is also indicating this possibility while the 3km
NAM supports sfc based storms. Should severe storms reach our FA,
the main concern would be damaging wind gusts with bowing segments
and an isolated tornado between 00z to 05z. By the time storms reach
the Mississippi, instability wanes quite a bit with any strong to
severe storms quickly diminishing for the remainder of the FA.
Overall, widespread severe storms is not anticipated, as we are
confident they will be confined to mainly a few counties in SEMO
should they occur. Heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding will
also will be a concern in the aformentioned area as 1-2 inches of
QPF is progged by the HREF PMM. Areas near Poplar Bluff in
particular will be extra sensitive where the KPAH WSR-88D shows
heavy rainfall fell yesterday.

As a cold front slowly moves through on Monday, additional showers
and thunderstorms will be possible. The shear by this point will be
lacking, but there will be enough instability to support general
thunder. Monday afternoon into Monday evening in particular is when
there might be a slight enhancement to pcpn as a 500 mb impulse
ejects out of the southern Plains and provides better lift. MaxTs
will be much cooler in the low to mid 70s.

Zonal flow aloft Tuesday into Wednesday will allow for much drier
conditions with only slight chance NBM PoPs progged. The flow then
turns more amplified and unsettled Thursday into Friday as a 500 mb
trough digs across the central CONUS. This will mean more
unseasonably warm maxTs in the 80s along with more chances for
showers and thunderstorms as another cold front eventually moves
through. High pressure eventually looks to build in next weekend
allowing for drier conditions and cooler maxTs in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

VFR conditions at all TAF sites through the TAF period with
SCT-BKN mid and high clouds. VCTS at KCGI/KMVN after 04z. South
winds overnight at 10-15kts with some gusts near 20 kts. LLWS
expected at KCGI/KPAH/KMVN through 13z at 020/20040kt. South
winds will increase after 13z to 15-20kts with gusts of
25-35kts, decreasing to 10-15kts and becoming less gusty after
22z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...RST