451
FXUS61 KPBZ 291236
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
836 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperature is expected through the week while
precipitation chances will be mainly focused on Tuesday and
Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Well above normal highs again today. Some climate sites may
  approach record readings.
- Dry with plenty of sunshine.
------------------------------------------------------------------

Eastern CONUS ridge will remain entrenched over the region
today as an upper level low lifts toward the western Great
Lakes. Warm air aloft and subsidence will cap any convection,
keeping dry conditions in place and allowing for plenty of
sunshine. Near to record high temperatures are possible at all
climate sites.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Near record high min temperature Tuesday is possible.
- Showers and thunderstorms return Tuesday.

----------------------------------------------------------------

Ridge axis will shift eastward tonight and Tuesday as a
shortwave trough will push the dome of high pressure toward the
east coast. An increase in cirrus clouds tonight should keep
overnight lows warm. Near to record high minimum temperature at
most climate sites could result.

Upper level trough will weaken as it slowly crosses the region
on Tuesday. This loss in amplitude will result in a slower
crossing of a weak surface cold front. Shortwave trough
movement will dictate rainfall timing with the trends continuing
to slow the progression of the showers. This would result in
rainfall chances continuing into Tuesday night. Any severe
threat will depend on strength of that passing shortwave. It
still appears that the severe threat will be limited given
excessive cloud cover and residual warm air aloft.

Height rises are likely to return on Wednesday, promoting dry
conditions and well above normal temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- An unsettled pattern continues through the long term with
  above-average temperatures favored.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Ensembles favor upper level trough movement through the Great
Lakes region Friday into the weekend that would push the ridge
axis southeast and introduce widespread shower and thunderstorm
chances. Timing of said pattern shift (which will play role in
precipitation timing and temperature trends Friday into
Saturday).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR will prevail through the period with ridging in place across
the region. Southwesterly winds will pick up late morning/early
afternoon as the boundary layer deepens with daytime heating,
then lessen by early evening with decoupling.

Diurnal cu will develop in the afternoon with SCT cloud bases
>5 kft.

.Outlook...
Restrictions will likely return in showers and possible
thunderstorms on Tuesday with a crossing cold front as
probability for MVFR CIGs jumps to 60-80% Tuesday morning. VFR
then returns Wednesday and Thursday under high pressure.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Here is a table of the record high and low temperatures Monday.
(* denotes current forecasted temperature exceeds value)

                  Record High  Year    Record Low  Year
Pittsburgh             88      (1899)      65      (1974)
Wheeling               86*     (1942)      64      (1914)
Morgantown             91      (1899)      67      (1914)
New Philadelphia       90      (1986)      64      (1974)
Zanesville             90      (1899)      67      (1914)
Dubois                 80*     (1970)      61*     (1974)

Here is a table of the record low temperatures Tuesday.
(* denotes current forecasted temperature exceeds value)

                  Record Low  Year
Pittsburgh             69      (1899)
Wheeling               58*     (1911)
Morgantown             66      (1910)
New Philadelphia       63      (1991)
Zanesville             69      (1910)
Dubois                 60*     (1970)

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...22/Frazier
NEAR TERM...22/Frazier
SHORT TERM...22/Frazier
LONG TERM...Frazier
AVIATION...88
CLIMATE...Frazier