Text Products for ESF Issued by PHI

Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1045 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook...Number 6

This is the sixth in a series of annual Flood Potential
Statements that provides an assessment of how ready or primed our
forecast area is for river flooding.

This outlook covers the middle/lower Delaware, Lehigh,
Schuylkill, Passaic and Raritan River basins.

It will provide information on flood threat contributors such as
recent precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover and its water
equivalent, river ice conditions, streamflow, future
precipitation and others.

This assessment is valid between March 14 - 28, 2024.

In the Mid-Atlantic region, heavy rainfall is the primary factor
which leads to river flooding. It is important to note that heavy
rainfall can rapidly cause river flooding any time of year, even
when the overall river flood potential is considered to be low.

This outlook does not discuss flash flooding, nor does it discuss
any extent or severity of flooding.

In the Mount Holly, New Jersey Hydrologic Service Area (HSA), the
overall river flood potential is above normal.

Note - For the headwaters of the Delaware River, see the
statement
(FGUS71 KBGM ESFBGM) from our Binghamton (BGM) New York office.

CURRENT FLOODING - None. There is currently no river flooding
occurring within our service area.

RECENT PRECIPITATION - Much above normal. Between 5.0 and 6.5
inches of liquid have been recorded over the last 30 days across
the entire HSA. Precipitation departure maps can be found at
www.weather.gov/marfc (under the Water Supply tab).

SNOW COVER - There is no snow on the ground across our forecast
area. Depth and basin-average water equivalent estimates can be
found at www.weather.gov/marfc (under the Seasonal Interest tab)
or www.nohrsc.noaa.gov (under the National Analysis tab).

RIVER ICE - We have no reports of river ice across our area of
responsibility at this time.

STREAMFLOW - Normal to much above normal. Real time water data is
available from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) by
visiting https://dashboard.waterdata.usgs.gov.

SOIL MOISTURE - Normal to above normal. Soil moisture monitoring
charts (Long Term Palmer Drought Severity Index) from NOAA`s
Climate Prediction Center can be found at the following
websites...
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_
monitoring/palmer.gif as well as www.drought.gov.

GROUND WATER - USGS monitoring wells indicate that current ground
water levels across the region vary and are running below normal
to above normal. Additonal information can be found at
https://dashboard.waterdata.usgs.gov.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - Water supply and flood control reservoirs
in the area are mainly running normal.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - High pressure to our south will drift
off the Southeast coast through today. Low pressure will pass
north of our area tonight through Friday. A pair of cold fronts
will pass through Sunday and Monday before high pressure returns
for the middle of next week. At this time and in general, it
appears the region will see about 0.25 to 0.50 inch of rainfall
over the next week. While this is not enough rain to drive river
flooding, keep in mind the region remains primed for flooding
with high levels of ground moisture and high streamflows in place.
Under the current environment, a precipitation event that results
in 1.50 to 2.00 inches of rainfall would likely cause river
flooding.

For week two, the 8 to 14 day outlook calls for above normal
temperatures and precipitation.

SUMMARY - Taking all of the included variables into consideration,
the overall river flood potential is above normal across the
forecast area.

For complete weather information, visit our website at:
www.weather.gov/phi

&&

Overall Flood Potential...Above normal
Current Flooding...None
Recent Precipitation...Much above normal
Snow cover...Below normal north, normal south
River Ice...Below normal north, normal south
Streamflow...Much above normal
Soil Moisture...Normal to above normal
Ground Water...Below normal to above normal
Reservoir Conditions...Normal

$$

Kruzdlo
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
