Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 260940
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
340 AM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night.
Remain in northwest flow aloft and another upper level short wave
will move through Idaho and expect convective rain and snow
showers once again mainly in the afternoon. Amounts will again be
light with some southeast highlands receiving 1 to 3 inches. The
Bear River Range has at least a 20 percent chance of getting 4
inches or more. A fast moving upper level ridge will dry things
out tonight and Wednesday with the next system quickly allowing
Pacific moisture back into Idaho with rain and snow moving back
into southeast Idaho. Snow levels will be between 5 and 6 thousand
feet. So precipitation will likely be rain in the Snake River
Plain and the central mountains will see the heaviest snow with a
50 percent chance of more than 2 inches. High temperatures again
in the 30s mountains to 40s low elevations today with warmer
conditions Wednesday as flow aloft turns southwesterly and mainly
40s with some low elevations reaching the low 50s. Lows overnight
in the teens to 20s tonight and lows Wednesday night in the 20s
mountains to near 40 in the Snake River Plain and eastern Magic
Valley.
GK

.LONG TERM...Thursday through next Tuesday. Models continue to show
the wet pattern to continue again Thursday as an another upper level
low pressure system approaches the Pacific coast. Models continue to
show this upper level low to drop down the Pacific coast and move
over California and Utah by the weekend into early next week. The
NBM, GFS, and ECMWF models continue to show a strong wave of
moisture moving off this low over our area on Thursday with
continued waves Friday through Sunday, though these later waves
still vary in timing and intensity. Snow levels look to still be
around 5000 to 6000 feet on Thursday before dropping to 4000 to 5000
on Friday and then rising up to around 6000 to 6500 feet by Sunday.
Models are still showing some consensus of drier conditions by next
Monday afternoon into Tuesday with high pressure starting to build
in over the area. Look for temperatures to be around 4 to 8 degrees
below normal Thursday before rising to around 4 to 8 degrees above
normal by next Tuesday.
Wyatt


&&

.AVIATION...Moist northwesterly flow aloft will continue today
with breezy southwesterly flow at the surface across the Eastern
Magic valley and Snake plain. Moisture from showers yesterday will
likely contribute to MVFR CIGS early this morning across the Snake
Plain and Eastern Magic valley. Today convective showers are
expected again with an another wave moving through the area. There
is a 10 to 20 percent chance of afternoon thunderstorms for western
and northern areas and a 20 to 30 percent chance of afternoon
thunderstorms for eastern areas, possibly impacting KDIJ. Look for
showers on station for all sites by mid to late morning into the
afternoon. Any showers on station could cause brief MVFR conditions.
Wyatt

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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