Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
329 FXUS65 KPUB 302038 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 238 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical fire weather conditions return to the San Luis Valley and portions of the southeast plains Wednesday. - Isolated thunderstorms possible late Wednesday afternoon over the central mountains and Palmer Divide. - Generally unsettled weather late this week into the weekend, with several cold fronts and scattered showers and storms. - Temperatures warm up late this weekend into early next week. .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 235 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Tonight...winds settle this evening at most locations, though weak secondary front/boundary dropping south through the plains may produce some brief gustiness along and east of I-25, mainly between midnight and sunrise. Overnight mins will stay generally in the vicinity of seasonal averages, with below freezing temps limited to high valleys and higher mountain peaks. Wednesday...upper low drops into the nrn Rockies, while surface surface trough/dryline sharpens up on the plains during the day. By afternoon, dryline pushes eastward across the plains, and while many models suggest drier air will reach the KS border by mid/late afternoon, a few (12z/18z NAM) keep the northern end of the boundary hung up on the plains from La Junta se to near Springfield. Overall, expect air mass to dry out enough to warrant upgrade of the Fire Weather Watch to a warning for the 3 zones on the plains that haven`t greened up yet, with Baca County the most questionable, as moisture could linger in the eastern half of the county as late as 22z-23z. Will also upgrade San Luis Valley to a warning, as sw winds become gusty under increasing mid level flow (30-50 kts in the 700mb- 500mb layer). Regarding thunderstorm chances, dynamic lift ahead of the trough should spark at least scattered activity over the central mountains by late afternoon, with greatest chance for storms north of Cottonwood Pass. Cold front drops back south over the Palmer Divide toward 00z (aided by nrn CO convection?), and will include some low pops here as enough low level moisture surges back south behind the front to generate scattered storms. On the plains, still appears deepest instability and risk for severe will lie east of the KS border, though will need to watch (0-6km shear is 50kts) the lower Arkansas Valley, as narrow ribbon of instability (CAPE of 400- 700 J/KG)may develop if boundary is slow to move north/east. Max temps most areas will again be on the warmer side of climatological averages, and some low mid 80s look likely on the southeast plains. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 235 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024 On Thursday, an upper-level trough will begin to move through our region, a bit north of us, sending a cold front across the eastern plains. As a result, Thursday will be a fair bit cooler than the previous several days, with high temperatures in the 60s to low-70s. While there may be a few showers late overnight Wednesday into early Thursday morning, our greatest chances for precipitation will come Thursday afternoon when the trough axis moves past. Given the positioning of the trough to our north, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible along parts of the Central Mountains and the Palmer Divide/Pikes Peak Region. Meanwhile, critical fire weather conditions will continue across the San Luis Valley, where dry air will remain in place. Temperatures should recover somewhat on Friday, though that may be limited over the far eastern plains, mostly depending on what kind of cloud cover we get from the post-frontal winds and airmass. Highs will climb into the mid-upper 70s over most of the eastern plains, and surface winds across the area will be gusty from the south- southwest. As such, critical fire weather conditions will once again continue across the SLV, with some critical conditions possible over parts of the southern I-25 corridor as well thanks to gap flow. A second cold front will approach the area late Friday into early Saturday as the main axis of the upper-trough moves past. Showers and storms will be possible along and behind the front, mainly along the Colorado-Kansas border. Models do differ on the amounts of available moisture and instability, but at this time showers appear high-based and on the weaker side. High temperatures for Saturday cool down a bit over the plains, sticking to the mid-low 70s. Looking to Sunday and into next week, temperatures will warm as a short-lived upper ridge builds in behind the departing trough, allowing us to dry out a bit. However, another deep low will swing down from the Pacific Northwest, bringing some more unsettled weather to the area, mostly the mountains, closer to the end of this forecast period. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 235 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024 VFR conditions expected at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. Gusty winds at all terminals will diminish 02z-04z this evening, although a weak boundary may drop through KCOS and KPUB 08z-10z, bringing a brief period of gusty e-ne winds to both sites. On Wed, sw winds increase after 18z at KALS, with gusts to 25 kts through the afternoon. At KCOS and KPUB, s-se winds gradually strengthen through the morning, with a few gusts to 20 kts after 18z. Shift to gusty sw winds may occur after 22z Wed at KPUB, as drier air pushes off the mountains. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ224. Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ224- 232-233-237. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO AVIATION...PETERSEN