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000
FXUS65 KPUB 241731
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1131 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions will return to the San Luis
  Valley this afternoon, with spotty critical conditions over
  southern I-25.

- Winds gusting to 55 mph, potentially higher, and high fire
  danger expected for portions of the area on Thursday, with
  critical fire weather conditions once again possible across
  the plains Friday.

- There is a low risk of strong to severe storms across the
  eastern plains Thursday afternoon.

- Next system to affect the area this weekend will bring
  areawide increases in rain and snow chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 339 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

The upper-level ridge will continue to push east and build in
overhead today, leading to warming and drying conditions across
the area. Afternoon high temperatures will be noticeably warmer
than yesterday, with mid-high 70s across our area. Gusty
southwest winds will set in across the higher terrain and the
mountain valleys, leading to another day of critical fire
weather conditions for the San Luis Valley. Afternoon RH values
are expected to drop to around 10 percent, supported by the
downsloping winds off of the terrain. The Red Flag Warning will
remain in effect noon through 8pm. The southern I-25 corridor
will also experience some spotty critical fire weather
conditions this afternoon, mainly around Huerfano County and the
surrounding gap flow areas, though at this time conditions
appear too spotty to warrant expanding the Red Flag.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 339 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

An upper level low/trough lifting across the region on Thursday
could potentially bring a rather active day, with a number of
hazards possible across southern Colorado. Of most concern and
is still where confidence is highest, is the high fire danger
across southern Colorado. Still not expecting areawide extreme
conditions, but will be rather close across the far southeast
plains. This will especially be for areas south of Highway 50
where RH values are now expected to fall to the single digits
and while west southwest winds gust up to 50-55 mph. There is an
increasing likelihood for a few gusts to around 60 mph Thursday
afternoon, once again, south of Highway 50. In terms of High
Wind Warning criteria, don`t anticipate any headlines at this
time given the limited nature and short duration of these higher
gusts. At this point, the forecast of above normal temperatures
will into the 70s and 80s and dew points in the teens seems
reasonable. Did lower dew points in the afternoon but similar to
previous forecasts, am concerned even lower dew points are
possible given the extent of the mixing on this day. Either way,
fire danger will be high on Thursday, and have upgraded the
Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning this morning.

While snow showers look to provide some minor snowfall over the
Continental Divide, a small window for strong to severe storms
remains possible Thursday afternoon into early evening over the
far eastern plains. This potential will be situated along and
east/northeast of a deepening surface low and where a ribbon of
higher moisture and instability will reside. Latest trends would
suggest that a quickly deepening lee surface low and deep
mixing will assist with pushing the higher moisture/instability
to the east/northeast prior to storm initiation. If this occurs,
think the chances for severe storms will lower. Given some
model variability, don`t want to stray too far from previous and
current messaging of the possibility for strong/severe storms,
as I can`t completely rule out at least an isolated severe
storm, in a higher CAPE and shear environment, capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds near the Colorado and
Kansas border.

Friday into Saturday look to remain active days, with high fire
danger continuing across the plains Friday and with increases
in precip chances especially Friday night into Saturday. Another
upper level low looks to pivot across the region and while
there is some uncertainty with exact trends/track, model
consensus at this point is for increased chances for mountain
snow and rain over the lower levels. At this time, highest
snowfall amounts are expected across the Continental Divide,
especially the central mountains. Thunderstorms are also
appearing likely, especially as this system looks to wrap
moisture and instability back into the area. Severe weather not
appearing likely on Saturday, but would not be surprised to see
an isolated strong storm or two given steepening lapse rates and
strong ascent in place. Can`t completely rule out some snow
over the lower elevations of the Pikes Peak region and Palmer
Divide this weekend and will continue to closely monitor, but at
this time, confidence is low on this snow and potential
impacts. Cyclonic flow with another mid/upper trough look to
swing through on Sunday, with another day of scattered showers
and thunderstorms looking possible. Warmer and drier weather
then look to be in storm early next week into the middle part of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR conditions expected across the forecast area over the next
24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and
KALS.

Isolated convection will be possible along the eastern border
late tonight between 04z-08z.

S-SE gusts up to 25 kts will be possible across the eastern
plains, including KCOS and KPUB, between 19z-03z. SW gusts up to
30 kts will be possible across the San Luis Valley, including
KALS, now through 03z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ224.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for COZ224-
225-232-233-237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...RODRIGUEZ
AVIATION...MOORE