481
FXUS62 KRAH 010541
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
145 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will shift slowly eastward across the central
and eastern Carolinas through this afternoon. Deep high pressure
will build over the Carolinas and Southeast this evening through
Friday, resulting in very warm temperatures. A series of weak upper
level disturbances will move through the region Friday evening
through Sunday, bringing periods of unsettled weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 910 PM Tuesday...

Even with the shortwave trough noted in WV imagery over the southern
Appalachians, radar continued to show shower and thunderstorm
activity largely avoiding central NC. The isolated thunderstorms
were noted near Danville moving east. There is an outflow boundary
associated with this convection and it may help generate a shower or
storm along the NC/VA border in the next couple of hours. However,
instability is lacking and there is already developing convective
inhibition with sunset. Other light showers or sprinkles were
located over the Triad and over Scotland/Hoke counties. Most hi-res
guidance suggests this activity will likely die out with the lack of
instability in the next few hours. There is still a chance of a
shower overnight as the shortwave trough moves east across the
region. Otherwise, generally dry and warm with lows in the lower to
mid 60s with partly to mostly cloudy skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Tuesday...

The shortwave will be positioned over the Coastal Plain of the
Carolinas by Wed morning with the trough axis shifting out over the
western Atlantic by Wed evening. NWP models have come in slightly
stronger with the shortwave ridging building in behind the departing
shortwave. The result will be a stronger subsidence inversion
overspreading central NC through the afternoon and evening hours and
suppressing any showers potential over the Piedmont. Wed morning
into the early afternoon some showers/storms will be possible over
the NC Coastal Plain where the core of the shortwave will overlap
with 500 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE as well as a surface trough axis and
sea-breeze interaction. Once again, storm organization will likely
remain confined to multi-cell clusters along common cold pools given
15-25 kts of 0-6km shear, a majority of which is located above 700mb.

Low-level thickness will be on average around 1-3m greater compared
to Tuesday and with greater sunshine chances most places will be
able to rise into the low/mid 80s once again. Lows will be more
indicative of a radiational cooling night with mostly clear skies
and most locations able to go calm relatively early in the night,
supporting temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s. Patchy to areas
of fog seem probable in the Coastal Plain by early Thurs morning
with the lingering rich low-level moisture in addition to moderate
radiational cooling.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 355 PM Tuesday...

Strong upper level ridge will influence the region Thursday and
Friday before moving offshore early Saturday. A series of shortwaves
will move across the region early next week. At the surface, high
pressure will influence the Mid-Atlantic region. Light calm winds
with mostly sunny skies will set up for warm days on Thursday and
Friday with highs well above average in the mid to upper 80s both
days. By Saturday morning confidence in the forecast becomes less
confident as models have been inconsistent. Latest data shows by
Saturday morning increased moisture values to 1.5+ ahead of a cold
front moving across the TN and OH valley will bring isolated to
scattered showers and storms to the area Saturday and continuing
into Sunday. The cold front will move across the region Sunday
before stalling across the region on Monday. Less coverage is
expected on Monday but depending where the front stalls, isolated to
scattered showers and storms could be possible. The stalled front is
expected to dissipate and most of Tuesday is expected to be dry, but
multiple long range models show another round of showers and storms
by late afternoon Tuesday ahead of another frontal passage moving
across the Southern Plains and Southeast. Temperatures over the
weekend will largely depend on timing and coverage of the
precipitation, but generally expect highs in the upper 70s to
low/mid 80s. Lows in the upper 50s and low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 AM Wednesday...

Low confidence forecast early this morning, as the showers which
have passed through central NC in the last several hours were more
than expected, and locations which saw rain like RDU and RWI are
more apt to see patchy MVFR to IFR fog and stratus 08z-12z. Will
have prevailing VFR conditions but with a tempo for MVFR to IFR
vsbys/cigs 08z-12z for now. These showers are a result of a mid
level trough slowly crossing the area early this morning. Until this
trough pushes to our east this afternoon, showers will be possible
at RDU/FAY/RWI through 09z and at RWI/FAY this afternoon. But VFR
conditions will be dominant from mid morning on, with clearing skies
in the W terminals late in the day, although mid clouds will linger
for a longer time in the E terminals. Surface winds will be under 10
kts, mainly from the SW with a gradual shift to be from the NW then
NE.

Looking beyond 06z Thu, there is a chance for patchy to scattered
sub-VFR clouds and fog early Thu morning esp across the NE areas.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through Fri. The chance for
sub-VFR conditions within scattered to numerous showers and storms
will increase starting Fri night, lasting through Sun, as a series
of disturbances passes over the region. Areas of early-morning fog
are also expected. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Swiggett
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Hartfield