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000
FXUS61 KRNK 240637
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
237 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses our region today with scattered showers
mainly across the mountains. Temperatures remain a few degrees
either side of normal through the week with high pressure
returning behind the front. Sunday through Tuesday look
especially warm.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1. Light showers for the western mountains end by mid morning.

2. Sunny and warm by afternoon with gusty NW winds.

The first of two weak boundaries was in the process of crossing
the forecast area from NW to SE this morning. Radar imagery
showed light precipitation echoes, but some of this is not
reaching the ground as it falls through a dry sublayer. A
secondary boundary moves through shortly behind this one, and
should deliver some light showers to the western mountains as
well. Again QPF looks very low outside of western Greenbrier
County. Main mid/upper level support will remain to our north,
and showers should fall apart as they move south, largely coming
to an end by mid morning.

Skies begin to clear out late morning and we should see
temperatures in the 60s and 70s. WNW winds will be gusty,
especially on the ridges, and expect 20-25 mph gusts at times
before they calm down this evening. Overnight, light fog and
possibly some frost is possible where it rains today, however
models are indicating some cloud cover around associated with
energy within the NW flow, so did not go very agressive on
either of these weather types. Overnight lows will be in the mid
30s to mid 40s.

Confidence in the near term is high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for dry weather on Thursday.

2) A chance of showers exists in the mountains on Friday, while
high pressure wedges against the eastern slopes of the Blue
Ridge.

Surface high pressure centered over Lake Ontario will provide
dry weather for the Mid Atlantic on Thursday. As the high
moves eastward by Thursday night, it will wedge against the
eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge. A cooler easterly flow should
keep temperatures lower on Friday compared to Thursday.
Meanwhile, a warm front will head northward along the western
periphery of the wedge and spark a low chance of showers in the
mountains for Friday and Friday night. By Saturday, the warm
front should head towards the Great Lakes, and high pressure
should drift off the East Coast. The flow will turn to the
southeast, which would increase moisture and keep occasional
cloudiness lingering throughout the day. Temperatures should
tick upward on Saturday despite the cloudiness as an upper level
ridge builds aloft and warm air advection at the surface
increases.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for a warming trend during early next
week.

2) The chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase by late
Monday into Tuesday from an approaching cold front.

With the Mid Atlantic now firmly in the warm sector by Sunday, a
southerly flow will erode the lingering wedge of high pressure
east of the Blue Ridge. A strong upper level ridge overhead and
notable warm air advection at the surface will boost
temperatures above normal to start the new week. The warmest day
in this forecast period occurs on Monday when high temperatures
could reach the mid 70s to the mid 80s, which is about ten to
fifteen degrees above normal for late April. As a consequence of
this increasing heat and a low pressure system approaching from
the west, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will climb by
Monday afternoon and evening in the mountains and eventually
spread eastward towards Tuesday. The frontal passage might not
take place until Tuesday evening.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions are still in place this morning as a cold front
moves southeast into the area. Overcast VFR over the mountains
will lower to MVFR for BLF/LWB/BCB by daybreak. Only expecting a
few hours of -SHRA before ceilings improve and showers come to
an end. After 15Z, expect VFR conditions with some ceilings
around through the afternoon around 5-9 kft. SW winds become
more WNW behind the front and will gust to 20 kts or so at
times. Winds diminish this evening under high pressure.

Tonight there may be a little fog around but not expecting
anything widespread.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

Thursday looks dry and VFR.

A warm front approaches Friday, and although VFR conditions
remain, but could start to see sub-VFR toward LWB/BLF Friday
into Saturday. -SHRA looks unlikely outside of sprinkles during
this time for BLF. Sunday will be VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...SH